Pulse Check - September 2025
September 2025
Checking the pulse of the nation
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Worst PM satisfaction on record
Only 13% are satisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as Prime Minister. 79% are dissatisfied - giving him a net rating of -66. This is the lowest satisfaction rating recorded by Ipsos for any Prime Minister going back to 1977.
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Reform UK leads by 12 pts over Labour...
Reform UK holds a lead of +12 points over Labour. Labour’s vote share (22%) is the lowest Ipsos has recorded for the party since June 2009. The Conservatives’ 14% share is the lowest Ipsos has ever recorded for them, starting from 1976.
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...yet, the public are split on whether they prefer Labour or Reform UK in government
If given a choice between the Labour party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons are split on which party they would prefer to win the next General Election. 38% say the Labour party led by Keir Starmer, while 35% say Reform UK led by Nigel Farage.
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Starmer rallies the troops - but there may be trouble ahead
By Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics, Ipsos
It is fair to say this was always going to be a difficult conference for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Our polling at Ipsos shows two in three think things in Britain are heading in the wrong direction. With immigration the number on issue on our monthly Ipsos Issues Index, Reform UK appear to be making all the running politically, reflected in their 12-point lead over Labour in voting intention.
In this political context, some have speculated that Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party - and therefore position as Prime Minister - may be under threat. If not immediately then in the medium term. His net satisfaction rating as Prime Minister with Ipsos is the worst we have ever recorded. Perhaps some Labour MPs will eventually conclude their chances would be better with someone else. Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would appear to be on manoeuvres, but he would face his own challenges getting the top job given he is not in parliament.
Starmer came out fighting in his conference speech - claiming Nigel Farage doesn’t believe in Britain. That seemed to do the trick. With party activists and pundits leaving Liverpool appearing to agree that the Prime Minister is safe for now.
However, in politics, trouble is always around the corner. Labour faces a difficult budget in November and an extremely challenging set of elections next May in Wales, Scotland and at a set of Local Elections where Labour will be defending more than 6,000 council seats. Many in traditional heartlands where Reform will hope to make ground. Labour faces the real prospect of losing power in Wales and our polling in Scotland shows Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar at historic lows too.
In the coming months, Labour will hope to do a better job of getting their message across. Our data shows that Labour do have popular policies in government, but the public don't know much about them and associate the party more with unpopular ones. That will surely need to change if Labour is to turn things around. Otherwise, questions of the Prime Ministers future may well re-emerge next summer.
