Scottish economic confidence hits new low

Part 2 of Ipsos’s new poll from Ipsos for BBC Scotland finds that Scots are pessimistic about the short-term economic outlook for Scotland. Seven in ten (72%) say that they think Scotland’s economy will get worse over the next 12 months. Just 16% expect it to improve, leaving an Economic Optimism Index score of -56. Despite this pessimism, a clear majority believe the Scottish Government is handling the coronavirus outbreak well; 78% say it is handling it well, while just 11% say it is handling it badly.

This is the lowest level of economic confidence that Ipsos has ever recorded in Scotland. We first started asking this question of the Scottish public in 2009, in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. However, our UK-wide Economic Optimism Index has tracked UK sentiment about the UK’s short-term economic situation for over two decades. The current level of economic pessimism among Scots during the coronavirus pandemic is comparable with UK-wide pessimism at the worst of the 2008 financial crisis, when 75% of the UK public thought the UK economy would get worse over the coming 12 months.

With Scotland and the wider UK set to face a severe recession, the public’s economic pessimism is understandable. There is widespread awareness that more hardship is imminent, and a majority in Scotland are worried about the financial impacts to come. Almost three in five (59%) say they are concerned about the financial impact of the coronavirus outbreak on themselves and their families, including one in five (22%) who say they are very concerned.

Concern about the financial impact of the pandemic is highest among the middle aged, part-time workers and those employed in the private sector.

• Read further analysis from Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos Scotland, on the BBC News website.

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,006 Scottish adults aged 16+ by telephone between 14th and 20th May 2020. Data are weighted to the profile of the population.