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Polls Apart!
Never did I ever think I'd write the most trite poll story headline, but I'm tempted tonight, writing on the eve on the publication of three opinion polls in the Sunday newspapers: MORI in the Sunday Telegraph with 1,010 interviews nationwide conducted over the last couple of days, NOP in the Sunday Times with 1,000+ interviews, and ICM in the Observer also with just over 1,000, all done over the telephone.
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Sunday Telegraph Week 4 Election Poll
Voting intention poll from during the 2001 general election, for the Sunday Telegraph.
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General Election 2001 : The Most Boring Election?
This has been the most boring election in living memory, with fewer of the public than ever taking any interest in it … right? Wrong, oddly enough.
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Labour's Nightmare Scenario
Labour's nightmare may be coming to haunt them the night of the 7th of June. In our survey for the Times a week ago (22nd May), there was just a few points difference between the Conservatives' 'certainty of voting', at 65%, and Labour's at 61%. That four-point gap is widening in our latest survey at the same time that the Labour share is reducing.
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General Election 2001 - Election Digest
MORI/Times Poll
Latest Gallup Findings
Turnout
Asians And Main Party Support
Leaders And Their Fictional Lookalikes
More ICM/Radio 1 Young Voter Findings
Europe And The Euro -
General Election 2001 : Party Image
The changes in the image of the parties since last Autumn, as revealed in our poll published in The Times this morning, illustrate clearly why Labour seems to be winning this election so easily.
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Issues That Bite
ICM reports today on a 1000 case telephone poll carried out on 19-21 May, which finds a 1997-like 45% Labour, 32% Tory, 17% Liberal Democrat result, which if projected to seats in the House of Commons would deliver Labour of the order of 177 seats, before adjusting for regional swing and turnout, although ICM does report on those they think most likely to vote.
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Reading The Polls
The British pollsters for some years have followed the Gallup method of determining voting intention, asking a two part question, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on 7th June?", and leaving aside those who say at that point they would not vote, asking the remainder, usually about 90%, "Which party are you most inclined to support?" (asked of those who say they are undecided or refuse to say for which party they would vote for). As a frame of reference, figures of 30% undecided, 10% would not vote and 3% refused would not be unusual at the first question, and when asked the second, the undecideds drop to 10% and the refusals to 2%.