General Election 2001 - Election Digest

MORI/Times Poll Latest Gallup Findings Turnout Asians And Main Party Support Leaders And Their Fictional Lookalikes More ICM/Radio 1 Young Voter Findings Europe And The Euro

MORI/Times Poll

The latest MORI poll for The Times puts Labour on 48%, the Conservatives on 30% and Liberal Democrats on 16%.

The poll differs in its methodology from our previous polls in the campaign. Now that nominations for the general election have closed, MORI is able to show the respondents a list of the actual names of all the candidates standing in their own constituency. In effect, this is equivalent to showing them the ballot paper, and is the same methodology as used in MORI's final poll for The Times in 1997. The advantage of this method is that it brings home to respondents the fact that the election is not a hypothetical exercise, and is also able to show them the actual candidates and parties standing in their constituency - something that is only possible in a face-to-face survey, where interviews are conducted on the ground. It reminds respondents that there are more than the main two parties contesting the election, and may help to focus their thoughts on the particular circumstances in their own constituency.

See Peter Riddell's analysis in The Times, 31 May 2001: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,636-2001182202,00.html

Source: MORI / The Times: www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2001/t010529.shtml Technical details: MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,013 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted face-to-face on 29th May 2001

Latest Gallup Findings

The latest Gallup/Daily Telegraph survey gives Labour a 16% lead over the Tories. The standings show no significant change since last week's Gallup findings: Labour on 47% (down 1%); the Tories on 31% (also down 1%), and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (up 1%). Findings are based on those considered most likely to vote. Among all potential voters Labour's lead is 19%.

The Telegraph reports that Labour's support among white collar workers is lower than among manual workers, but the Labour lead among this group (ABC1s) over the Tories still stands at 10% (42% to 32%).

Voters are 64% against and 28% in favour of joining the euro and abolishing the pound if a referendum were held during the next few months (among Labour voters 50% are against and 39% for). If, however, in two or three years time the Government said that joining the euro was in Britain's interest and there was a referendum, 37% said they would vote in favour and 52% against (Labour voters: 50% for; 38% against).

A majority (57%) appear broadly favourable towards joining the euro in the long run. Asked which of a set of statements comes closest to their personal view on the euro, 46% said Britain should probably join, but not yet; 11% said Britain should join as soon as possible; a fifth said joining is not a good idea and should be delayed for many years, and a fifth said Britain should never join. 68% believe Britain joining the euro is inevitable (down 4% on July 2000 findings); 29% believe it is not (up 5%).

66% of voters said they will definitely vote, compared to 72% who did so during the same stage of the 1997 campaign.

Source: The Daily Telegraph, 31 May 2001. Technical details: Gallup interviewed 1,462 adults across Great Britain by telephone between 28-29 May 2001. Respondents who said they were not on the electoral register (5%), or definitely would not be voting (6%) have been excluded from analysis.

Turnout

An ICM survey conducted for Make Votes Count finds that 56% say they are certain to vote; the Guardian reports that the proportion certain to vote at a comparable time in the 1997 election campaign was 65%. This points to a likely turnout which would be the lowest since 1918, according to Make Votes Count. Among the 18-24 age bracket the figure drops to 23%.

Source: The Guardian 31 May 2001. Technical details: none given.

Asians And Main Party Support

The Guardian reports a survey of British Asians, of whom 39% support Labour, 15% the Conservatives and 1% the Liberal Democrats; but the figures have not been repercentaged to exclude don't knows, and are hence not directly comparable with other polling figures. The report does not mention what company conducted the poll.

Source: The Guardian, 31 May 2001. Technical details: none given.

Leaders And Their Fictional Lookalikes

University students aged 20-24 most associate Tony Blair with Luke Skywalker, according to a survey by on-line publication Spiked. William Hague is said to be likened to Bungle from children's show Rainbow, and Charles Kennedy with the invisible man - chosen by 42% of respondents. Ann Widdecombe was reportedly compared to both Bagpuss and Jabba the Hut.

Source: The Daily Record 31 May 2001. Technical details: University students aged 20-24 were questioned. No other details given.

More ICM/Radio 1 Young Voter Findings

The ICM/Radio 1 survey (previously reported in Election Digest on 29 May) that found that 82% of first time voters will probably not vote in the forthcoming election also finds that the NHS, unemployment and crime are rated the three biggest issues in the campaign among 18-25 year olds; but 59% of 18-25 year olds have no opinion on whether the Tories or Labour are tougher on crime.

Source: The Daily Record, 31 May 2001. Technical details: none given.

Europe And The Euro

If there were a referendum on joining the Euro "tomorrow", 64% of those who would vote would "definitely" or "probably" vote against joining, while 36% would vote in favour, according to an NOP survey for Powerhouse. However, "if there were a referendum in a year or two, with the Government and a number of business leaders arguing strongly that Britain would be better off joining the single currency", the vote would be 53% to 47% in favour.

27% of voters believe the EU is good for Britain (the Channel 4 political programme produced by ITN).

Source: Evening Standard, 31 May 2001; The Sun, 31 May 2001. Technical details: NOP interviewed 1,000 adults, presumably by telephone. Interviews were conducted over the weekend of 26-27 May 2001, but exact fieldwork dates were not reported.