This week's MORI political poll for The Times sees the government's voting intention lead over the Conservatives widening again. The Opposition have failed to make their attacks on the government stick, and both this and other recent polls offer clues why this might be the case.
Questions have been raised about the role of the polls in the American presidential election. One thing's for sure; they said it would be close, and it certainly was! Polls rained down on the American public at the rate of over four a day during the two months and a bit since Labor Day, the traditional 'home stretch' of the presidential contest. Nobody could say there wasn't enough data, but what did they tell us?
Support for fuel blockades has fallen since the last wave of protests in early September, as much of the media has been assuming; but, as has been far less widely noted, the support still remains considerable. The public wants a reduction in the petrol tax, the majority were prepared to support further protests before Mr Brown's pre-budget statement, and half the country would still support it now.
There are a number of questions about the polls that we get asked time and time again. Over the next few months, as we run up to the general election that will probably be held next year, I am going to try to answer some of them here. Let us begin with some questions about sampling:
How important is the rural vote? There is in our view entirely too much attention paid to the so-called "rural vote". Questions are frequently raised as to whether Labour's failures to meet the needs and concerns of rural areas might cost it dear at the next election.
Because of the "first-past-the-post" electoral system that we use in Britain, it is not sufficient for a party to win votes: it has to concentrate those votes in the right places so that it can win seats. This is one of the problems facing William Hague. At the last election, Conservative votes were distributed around the country far less efficiently than were Labour votes; if there is a uniform swing across the country to the Conservatives at the next election, the Tories will need to win far more votes than Labour to become even the largest party in a hung Parliament, let alone to win an overall majority.
