US elections; the fat lady's just got up to sing

Just two more days until America, finally, makes up its mind which candidate, John McCain or Barack Obama is to be President of the United States. On Tuesday American voters, with a record turnout, will decide who will be President for the next four years, and perhaps eight. American Presidents are limited to two terms of four years each. Barack Obama's trajectory to where is today, and where he will be on the early hours of Wednesday morning when his electoral college numbers hit the magic 270, started in Iowa on the night of January 3rd, nine months ago, when the voters in the Democratic Party caucus decided that they would back him as their choice to be the candidate to run for the presidency. Fewer voters cast their ballots in Iowa, than in the last Kent County Council election by a factor of four to one! Yet Iowa voters propelled him to become the 44th President of the United States, which I expect he will be when sworn into office on January 20, 2009. Since then we've seen the Clinton surprise comeback in New Hampshire's primary election on January 8, the Republican nomination of John McCain sewn up by March 4, Obama's nomination clinched on June 5, two conventions when their chose candidates for vice president, Senator Joe Biden for the Democrats and the remarkable choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for the Republicans. Then the `real' election began at the beginning of September. In just two weeks the American economy went pear shaped, and the election was transformed. Early polls showed the possibility of a close race. But with the drop in initially a favourable rating for Governor Palin and an Obama lead on being the candidate thought best at handling the growing economic crisis, the election became increasingly likely a romp home for Obama. And so it is on the eve of polling day. In 2004, the key battle ground states were Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. When either candidate won two, he won the election. President Bush, running for his second term, won Ohio and Florida, and a return ticket to the White House. In 2008, there are more of the battleground states, seven which McCain would have to win to beat Obama, yet Obama is ahead in all seven. Sir Robert Worcester DL is the Founder of MORI. He will be co-presenting the ITV Election Show from midnight to 6 am on Wednesday morning.