Watch The Share; Watch The Fieldwork Dates; Watch The Brand Name And Other Watchwords
Commentators and pundits, never mind the politicians and the public, continue to be misled by their focus on the gap or lead, and not the share of the vote for each party. I'd go further than that, and say watch the Tory share, for the way ICM have been asking the voting intention question, 'prompting' the respondent with the names of the parties, has led to a higher level of support for the Lib Dems than MORI, NOP and Gallup. Now that Gallup have changed their methodology to more closely approximate their American practice of reporting voting intention on those they think will be 'certain' or 'very likely' to vote, and focusing on the vote in the constituency, is likely to do the same.
Watch the fieldwork dates is another watchword, as it was predictable that the later publication of the MORI poll in The Economist would lead careless commentators to ignore or miss altogether the fact that the MORI poll in the Times was from fieldwork on Wednesday, whereas the fieldwork for the Economist was earlier in the week. The BBC's web site will miss this, as it prints the date of publication, not the dates of fieldwork.
Another warning is to watch the brand name. Rasmussen Research which I mentioned in an earlier article is new and untried in this country. The person with the most experience of computer polling is Mike Cooke of NOP, who tells me that he is sceptical of 'outbound' surveys of this sort, as there is little in it for the respondent to answer parrot-like to a computer, unless there is a human interface, and if there is, there's very little savings on a short questionnaire, which on their web site they say is essential. More on this in my piece this weekend.
The findings of the survey we've done for the Times, face-to-face with over 1,000 people last Wednesday, will make depressing reading not only for the Tories and for that matter the Liberal Democrats, but also for all MPs, as only 41% of the public can accurately recall the name of their Member of Parliament, and it drops to 36% in London. In Conservative seats 42% know the name of their local MP, in Labour seats 38%, and in the Lib Dem seats, 55%.
Further, when asked the name of the Parliamentary Constituency that you live in, only 43% can name it correctly. Another 15% have an incorrect idea of where they are in political terms. In Conservative seats 47% know the name of the PC they live in, as do 44% of people living in Labour seats. It is much higher, interestingly, in London (57%).
20 days and counting.
