Watching the `blinking light'
Ben Marshall analyses the evolution of our seasonal house price sentiment tracker survey for the Halifax and its seasonally-themed infographic.
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Our seasonally-themed Infographics: Click or tap above to enlarge
Earlier this year Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe described house prices as a “blinking warning light” on the economy’s dashboard. Consumer sentiment shapes this important part of our economy so what is the housing market dashboard showing?
Since 2011 our quarterly surveys for the Halifax have measured expectations of house prices and views about whether or not the next 12 months will be a good time to buy and sell. We present the key data in our infographic (with appropriate seasonal shades!) and also in SlideShare format.
In September last year we recorded a substantial surge in expectations of price rises, up to 70% from 52% in June. Since then, and against a backdrop of wall-to-wall media commentary on price rises, around seven in ten have expected higher prices in 12 months’ time. But our latest survey finds a relative cooling in sentiment; the House Price Outlook stands at +62, compared to its height of +66 just three months ago.
In the past few quarters the survey has recorded an improvement in selling sentiment, and thus healthier equilibrium in the market. There are, though, signs of a dip in positivity about buying and the survey lays bare some sharp regional differences; in London 55% now think the year ahead will be a bad time to buy, much higher than the 38% of Britons.
Which way now? The economy, personal finances and the impact of interest rate rises will have an important bearing on the housing market. So too will the expectations and attitudes of buyers and sellers.
