Where does Labour go from here?

This article has been written independently by David Cowling and does not necessarily reflect the views of Ipsos.

“You can only get a logical conclusion, a truthful conclusion, from a logical, truthful beginning.”

- Paul Doherty, from his historical novel ‘The Straw Men’

What is the “logical, truthful beginning” when it comes to judging where Labour is today? Surely the task of reaching that judgement should not be difficult at all: the really hard bit would be for the party to bridge the gap between where it is and where it needs to be if it is to stand any chance of winning the next election? However, in the fractious state of the Labour Party today, even evidence comes painted in partisan colours. As soon as anyone puts their head above the parapet they are engulfed in a firestorm of claim and counter-claim: Jeremy Corbyn is a total loser, an albatross around Labour’s neck, destined to lead it to total defeat in 2020, or a new force in British politics certain to lead his party to victory but for the relentless stream of negative stories about him fed to the media by disloyal MPs. But that is all Labour’s problem: it does not inhibit us from considering the data available and drawing our own conclusions.

The Starting Point The conventional benchmark, against which to measure future challenges for any party, is their performance in the previous general election. In 2015, Labour received 31% of the popular vote in Britain and ended the day with 232 MPs, their smallest tally since the 1987 general election. Annihilated in Scotland, they registered their second worst share of the vote in Wales since 1918. They received an extra one million votes compared with 2010, but most of these piled up uselessly in London and other metropolitan areas whilst in dozens of key marginal seats outside the English conurbations there were swings away from Labour and towards the Conservatives.

The table below sets out Ipsos’s estimate of how key demographic groups voted in the 2015 general election.

Ipsos’s figures suggest a small gender gap in favour of Labour; significant or narrow leads among the 18-34 age groups but accelerating leads for the Conservatives among the 45+ age groups – the ones that make up the bulk of voters; and commanding leads for the Conservatives among ABC1s, parity with Labour among the C2 skilled working class and a significant lead among poorest voters (DEs).

This is the baseline from which Labour needs to launch any bid for victory in 2020 and there can be little dispute about the need for improvement.

In the 2015 general election, Labour received 31% of the votes cast in Britain. Since then and as of the date of this note (13 December 2016) I have recorded 131 national voting intention polls. In only 45 of them did Labour register more than 31% support and the party’s highest rating since the last election (so far) was 36% in ICM’s March 2016 poll. In the most recent six months (June – November 2016) Labour has polled above 31% in just 19% (eleven of 58 polls) and below 30% in 31 (53%) of them. Labour’s monthly poll average did not drop below 40% in the comparable period under Ed Miliband’s leadership (June-November 2011).

Satisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn Ipsos has the longest time series on satisfaction with party leaders and I set out their record of Mr. Corbyn’s ratings from the start of his leadership. Michael Foot is the only other party leader (Conservative or Labour) to have begun his tenure with negative ratings since the MORI series began in the late 1970s.

Ipsos satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings for party leaders

The next table looks at the same data but records the satisfaction of supporters with their own party leader. 

There is also a wealth of data on Jeremy Corbyn’s standing in public opinion available from other polling companies. In what follows, I have taken the most recent poll from each company.

BMG Research

ComRes

ICM

Opinium

Survation

TNS

YouGov

Commenting on his company’s latest poll (sampled 25-27 November 2016) ICM’s Martin Boon observed that it was

“pretty bleak for Labour no matter which part of the data we prod. The Tories enjoy leads among every social grade, including a rarely seen 1-point lead among the least affluent DE members of society. They also lead among all age groups except the 18-24s, and have a pro-women gender gap. In the populous South of England, the Tories stand on a whopping 49%, and Labour on a barely relevant 24%.”

It must be of some concern to Labour that some 20 months after the 2015 general election, in one poll at least, they are performing worse than the Ipsos estimates of their support in that election. Real Votes None of this seems particularly encouraging for the principal Opposition party one-third of the way through the current parliament. Leaving aside the fact that polls in nearly all recent elections have overstated Labour support, some will argue that their track record has, of late, been less than reliable. So let us enter the realm of actual votes cast.

Westminster by-elections since 2015 election Three of the first four by-elections saw increases in Labour’s vote share – all of them in Labour metropolitan constituencies. By contrast, the Ogmore by-election saw no improvement on 2015, which was Labour’s second worst vote share in Wales since 1918.

* By-election caused by murder of Labour MP, Jo Cox. Conservative, Lib Dem and UKIP parties did not contest the seat. Nobody expected Labour to win any of the three most recent by-elections. But they were pushed into a poor third place in Witney by the Lib Dems who started with only 6.8% of the vote from 2015, compared with a Labour share of 17.2%. In Richmond Park they lost their deposit – only the fourth time this has happened since 1945 when Labour was in Opposition. In Sleaford & North Hykeham, in 2015 the Lib Dems came within 400 votes of losing their deposit and UKIP, having not shown any real roots in the constituency were unable to take second place from Labour at the general election. However, in the by-election, both pushed Labour down to fourth place.

Council by-elections From the start of September to 8 December 2016, there have been 177 council seat by-elections. Among these Labour suffered the biggest net loss of eleven seats, compared with the Conservatives who made a net loss of nine. Over this same period the Lib Dems made a net gain of 22 seats. Bridging the gap On 4 May 2017, Labour has a date with Destiny - more specifically, an appointment with Middle England. On that date there will be inaugural elections for several new Metro Mayors, where Labour can hope to seek comfort in its metropolitan heartlands. But the real electoral test will be in the 27 English shire counties that also have elections. These counties encompass 201 shire district councils, of which 167 (83%) registered Leave majorities in June 2016.

On the same day, Unitary councils comprising the counties of Cornwall, Durham, Northumberland, Shropshire and Wiltshire will also face elections. Apart from the Metro Mayors, metropolitan England gets the day off. There are certainly some strong Labour areas within the counties polling next May but competitive politics will be the King, not the lazy indifference that permeates so safe seats. Scores of marginal Westminster seats are scattered throughout these areas. And among these 27 counties, there are 725 marginal divisions held with majorities of 10% or less: Labour is second in 105 of them.

British politics is not waiting patiently for Labour to decide when it is ready to compete. As Scotland has shown most brutally, the electorate can move on at devastating speed. Twenty months after its miserable result in the 2015 election, Labour is performing less well in the polls; its leader vies with Michael Foot for lowest personal ratings; and its electoral record is mediocre.

The parliamentary Labour party can squabble for as long as it likes. Momentum can hold as many activist meetings as it chooses. Trotskyists can discuss the revolutionary priorities of leading cadres for eternity. But the tide of public opinion is passing them by. In my view, the party has until next May to reverse that tide; if it does not then it faces an even steeper slide into irrelevance.

• A summary of 2015 polls (PDF)

David Cowling is an independent Political Analyst. If you'd like to post a comment, please read our comments policy.