Will People Live Longer Than They Expect?
Analysis of a MORI survey, conducted by the Centre for Risk and Insurance Studies at Nottingham University Business School, shows that, on average, people tend to underestimate how long they are likely to live. The analysis shows that people tend to underestimate the true figure (based on current official mortality figures produced by the Government Actuary's Department (GAD)) by over five years (4.62 years for men, 5.95 years for women).
MORI's survey was conducted among 3,966 adults aged over 16 years across Great Britain covering various aspects of public perceptions of mortality such as general level of health, smoking prevalence, alcohol consumption, and life expectancy.
The analysis also investigated people's expectations of longevity based on health issues such as smoking and alcohol consumption. For example, those with a modest alcohol consumption expect to live longer than teetotallers or heavy drinkers.
However, people's perceptions are not always accurate -- among smokers, the actual effects of smoking on longevity are significantly greater than they believe them to be and former smokers fail to recognise that they should expect to live less long than those who have never smoked.
Technical details
MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 3,966 adults aged 16+ across Great Britain, conducted face-to-face, in home as part of the MORI Omnibus. Interviews were conducted using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) in 186 sampling points across two omnibus waves: the first between 3-9 June 2004 and the second between 17-23 June 2004. Data have been weighted to the known profile of the Great Britain population.
