Winning The Public Opinion War
MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester examines the state of public opinion as British forces go to war against Iraq.
Tony Blair's standing with the electorate suffered a blow in recent weeks -- following high-profile disagreements with senior Labour MPs and the departure of Robin Cook from the Cabinet -- with MORI's latest research showing a six per cent drop in his approval rating over the international crisis surrounding Iraq.
Two weeks earlier, more than a third (36 per cent) of the British public said they approved of the way he was handling the situation with Iraq.
But new research carried out for The Sun newspaper among 968 British adults last weekend (March 15-16 2003), showed satisfaction with the prime minister's handling of the conflict had dropped to 30 per cent.
From these results, it would seem Blair's approval rating on Iraq has been affected by the 'Claire Short affair' as well public disquiet from other Labour MPs.
Support for military action remains highly conditional.
Three quarters (74 per cent) of people in Britain said they would have supported British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq but only if it had UN backing and UN inspectors found proof that Iraq was trying to hide weapons of mass destruction.
In the event, it didn't happen, and the Bush/Blair team pulled the plug on their resolution in the Security Council of the UN.
Without these two conditions, support sank to a quarter (26 per cent) whilst opposition rose from 17 per cent to 63 per cent.
However, these figures were slightly better for Tony Blair than those recorded by MORI two weeks earlier when -- without the two conditions being satisfied -- support stood at 24 per cent and opposition at 67 per cent, a swing of plus three per cent.
Other polls, especially by ICM for the Guardian, asking different questions, showed a sharper increase of support for the war than MORI's figures, but still a majority of the British public were in opposition to the involvement of British troops without a UN mandate.
Sir Robert Worcester is Chairman of MORI
