Worcester's Weblog
MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.
Yesterday was the salience of issues, today, differentiation between the parties among those regarding the issue as electorially important to them personally.
As can be seen in the graphics, two, separating the first division from the second. Labour has a strong lead over the Tories on the top two issues in terms of their importance, on health care, and on education.
On the former Labour leads by 14 points, and on education, 15, over the Tories, with the Liberal Democrats well behind even their share of voting intention, plagued by the fact that they won't be in a position to put their policies into effect.
But although Labour enjoys a healthy lead on the top two issues, they have haemorrhaged badly since 2001, with their lead over the Tories cut in about half.
The Tories lead on the third issue, crime and law & order, with a 12 point lead, whereas the two parties were neck and neck four years ago.
On pensions, I suspect somewhat to Labour's surprise, there's not much to choose between them. But on taxation, and hugely on asylum seekers and immigration, the Tories have hit pay dirt, especially if the immigration issue can run until polling day.
The chart tells the story.
Issues Important to Decide Vote: Which Party Best
Based: on those choosing
| 160 | % important | Party with best policies | Lab Lead | Change from '01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 67 |  22% |
+14 | -17 |
 36% |
||||
 10% |
||||
 |
||||
| Education | 61 | 20% |
+15 | -15 |
| 35% |
||||
| 16% |
||||
|
||||
| Crime / Law & Order | 56 | 38% |
-12 | -12 |
| 26% |
||||
| 5% |
||||
|
||||
| Pensions | 49 | 23% |
+2 | -22 |
| 25% |
||||
| 12% |
||||
|
||||
| Taxation | 42 | 30% |
-6 | -4 |
| 24% |
||||
| 10% |
||||
|
||||
| Asylum / Immigration | 37 | 52% |
160 | 160 |
| 11% |
||||
| 8% |
||||
|
||||
| Economy | 35 | 23% |
+30 | +5 |
| 53% |
||||
| 4% |
||||
|
||||
| Environment | 28 | 8% |
+6 | -4 |
| 14% |
||||
| 25% |
||||
|
||||
Base: All who say each issue is very important, 7-11 April 2005 (Change from February 2001)
Among the issue in the second division, but still important to millions of electors, two stand out. Iraq, which although only of importance to one person in six, the Liberal Democrats get recognition for their stand against the war, with nearly four people in ten saying their policy in opposing it was to their liking, double the score for Labour, and quadruple for the Tories.
And in animal welfare, of concern to 14%, and there Labour records a 15% lead, after abolishing fox hunting in Britain.
| 160 | % important | Party with best policies | Lab Lead | Change from '01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing | 27 | 11% |
+20 | -8 |
| 31% |
||||
| 9% |
||||
|
||||
| Public Transport | 26 | 10% |
+21 | +9 |
| 31% |
||||
| 14% |
||||
|
||||
| Unemployment | 25 | 13% |
+31 | +2 |
| 44% |
||||
| 4% |
||||
|
||||
| Europe | 19 | 32% |
-11 | -9 |
| 21% |
||||
| 16% |
||||
|
||||
| Defence | 19 | 36% |
-14 | +5 |
| 22% |
||||
| 5% |
||||
|
||||
| Iraq | 18 | 19% |
160 | 160 |
| 10% |
||||
| 39% |
||||
|
||||
| Animal Welfare | 14 | 9% |
+15 | -2 |
| 24% |
||||
| 8% |
||||
|
||||
| Constitution / Devolution | 8 | 32% |
+14 | +7 |
| 18% |
||||
| 14% |
||||
Tomorrow and Sunday while I'm in the USA, Paul Baines, principal lecturer in marketing at Middlesex University who is on secondment to MORI, will stand in for me. Paul, over to you. I'll be back Monday morning.
