Cliff’s Take: Vaccine Skepticism Clouds New Optimism

This week I got my first vaccine shot.  Optimism abounds—another 77.2m  of my fellow Americans have received at least one dose too, per the CDC. 

We have few collective experiences in life—elections, wars, the Superbowl.  Mass inoculation—after a year of pandemic—is one of them.  This is what I felt on Monday—I was part of something greater than myself.

Along with the new undercurrents of optimism we’re seeing across many of our indicators, Biden’s approval ratings find themselves at their highest levels. Coming on the heels of signing the American Rescue Plan Act into law, this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Biden is making real progress on addressing the economic woes of the virus and vaccinations. A "return to normal" beckons.

But our data does suggest some signs of trouble on the vaccine front. While a clear majority of Americans are willing to get the vaccine—certainly more so than when we began tracking this back in September 2020—there is a stubborn vein of vaccine skepticism that hasn’t budged.

How will this tension resolve itself? I don’t know, but we will see. Optimism with a pinch of skepticism is a complicated recipe.

Below, I detail the most interesting polling data of the week.

1. Biden’s political capital. Little to say.  Biden is holding strong: progress on COVID, a massive stimulus package, and spring optimism in the air.  As I often say, a sitting president at a 40% approval rating or better has a good chance of winning the next election, pushing their agenda through Congress, and building winning coalitions. Biden has all this and more.  But what goes up, must come down.  Right? 

    

2. It’s all about COVID. The coronavirus is still the number one issue for Americans. This isn’t likely to change until we’re free and clear. If Biden gets this right, he’s golden—at least for now. 

    

3. Strength in numbers. We are emboldened by the actions of our fellows.  Look at the data.  I felt this on Monday as I received the vaccine. Many feel that people should be vaccinated before they return to their old lives—flying, returning to the office, going to the gym.  What kind of tension will this create between those who want to be vaccinated and those who don’t? 

    

4. Vaccine skepticism. Vaccinations might be humming along, but some groups are still resistant to inoculation. Is this a generalized skepticism of vaccines or something specific to COVID? We do know there is a strong connection between partisanship, general doubts about the threat of COVID, and a lack of enthusiasm for the vaccine. Either way, we need to focus on communicating the benefits to skeptics. 

    

5. Universal derision. One off-topic, but notable, data point of the week. Americans have found one thing they can agree on: they don’t trust us pollsters. There is bipartisan consensus here, although Democrats like us more; Republicans less. 

    

Biden promised that we’d be barbecuing with friends and family on July 4^th. Just a few months ago, such a proposition seemed ludicrous.  Suddenly, the idea doesn’t sound so outlandish after all.  Let’s all do our part and get the vaccine when it is our turn.

Be safe; be sane.

For more information, please contact:

Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]

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