Consumer confidence heads towards pre-pandemic levels

Washington, DC, March 18, 2021 — Following the passage of the American Rescue Plan Act, consumer confidence edges closer to pre-pandemic levels, reading at 58.5 in this week’s Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker. This is the continuation of a five-week rally and marks a new pandemic high.

The Current, Expectation and Investment sub-indices all show an increase, while the Jobs sub-index holds steady. In another sign of growing optimism, just over half of all Americans say they are now more comfortable making major and household purchases.

Across demographics, the most significant gains are among retirees (+9.3 points) and those 55 years and older (+5.9 points). Meanwhile, the largest loss is just 1.9 points among those 35-54 years old.

This week, three-quarters of Americans report not having taken out a personal loan during the pandemic. Loans that were taken out went to mixed use, most commonly going towards home improvements, auto repairs and financing, debt consolidation and medical bills.

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Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.

Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.

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Detailed Findings

1. Scoring at 58.5, the latest overall Consumer Confidence is up 1.8 points from last week.

• The Consumer Confidence index is currently 8.1 points above the pandemic average and 1.6 points lower than where it stood in early March (60.1).

2. The Current and Investment sub-indices drive this week’s gains, increasing 2.7 and 2.8 points, respectively.

• Expectation increased 1.1 points and surpasses early March levels by 5 points.

3. The Jobs sub-index shows minimal change from last week, rising 0.5 point, while confidence in job security holds steady.

• The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 38%, unchanged from last week.
• In addition, 42% say it’s likely they, a family member or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, unchanged from last week.

4. A majority of Americans believe that the economy will recover quickly once pandemic restrictions are lifted (61%).

5. Views on allowing the economy to restart before restrictions are lifted are more mixed when compared to last week. While half believe that businesses should be allowed to resume economic activity (50% agree, down 3 points from last week), more believe they should not (46% disagree, up 4 points from last week).

6. Purchasing confidence for both major items and other household items continues to improve.

• For the first time during the pandemic, more than half say they are more comfortable making a major purchase (52%, up 4 points from last week).

• Compared to six months ago, 55% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases, up 2 points from last week.

7. Three-quarters of Americans have not taken out a personal loan during the pandemic. Among those who did, the use of funds is mixed.

• Those who did take out a loan were most likely to have obtained funds for home improvement purposes, auto repairs and financing, debt consolidation and medical bills.

Questions

The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:

1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in the U.S.? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?

Additional questions

Q. To what extent do you agree with the each of the following?

• The economy will recover quickly once the lockdown is over.
• We should restart the economy and allow businesses to open even if the virus is still not fully contained.

Q. If you took out a personal loan during the pandemic (from the beginning of 2020 to present), how did you use the funds?

• I didn't take out a personal loan
• Education/school or college tuition
• Funeral costs
• Medical bills
• Wedding costs
• Auto repairs
• Travel or vacation
• Debt consolidation
• Financing a home or real estate purchase
• Financing a vehicle
• Expensive non-emergency consumer purchase
• Home improvement
• Covering a gap in income
• Moving expenses
• None of the above

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About the Study

These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted March 16-17, 2021 with a sample of 927 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=927, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.2 percentage points).

Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index and a Jobs Index.

Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420 2025
[email protected]

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations Specialist, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]

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