How much of an impact could the war in Gaza have on the election?

When it comes to elections, what are the most important issues to watch? Past Ipsos analysis suggests that the main issue is typically the space to watch – candidates who perform well on the main issue win their election roughly 85% of the time.

Right now, the main issue landscape is mixed, with the economy in particular dragging down Biden’s approval ratings and throwing a sense of malaise around the public’s relationship to his presidency.

But the economy and inflation aren’t necessarily the issues making front page headlines every week. What has been front and center for many is the war in Gaza. Is that good for Biden politically? That’s not what it seems. Will this be the X factor in the 2024 election? Nationally, at least, it doesn’t look like it.

Below are five charts on inflation, the war in Gaza and what these two issues might mean for the 2024 election.

1. What’s the main issue? It’s complicated. The main issue landscape is fairly mixed between political extremism and threats to democracy, the economy, and immigration. It also depends on who you ask. Notably, the economy is particularly important to Black, Hispanic, and younger Americans, some of whom are a weakness for Biden.
2. Inflation is a big Biden problem. Since the high inflationary period in 2022, Biden’s approval rating has dropped, particularly among younger, Black, and Hispanic Americans. With inflation easing, can Biden win back these groups before the election? We will see.
3. Headed in the wrong direction. Though, a key similarity between how Americans feel about inflation and the war in Gaza: Americans aren’t exactly content with the direction of either. Most feel that both the economy, the cost of living, and American foreign policy are all headed in the wrong direction (though this may be partly attributed to general American malaise).
4. Not a deciding factor. Across most demographics, far more say inflation will affect how they vote compared to the war in Gaza. Foreign wars don’t tend to be more important than domestic politics. Despite all the noise, this seems to be the case here.
5. Electoral implications. Though both issues may not be equally as important when it comes to the election, they both are a political advantage for Trump. Compared to Biden, Trump is seen as having a better plan for the economy and Israel.

The war in Gaza is a tough issue for Biden politically, particularly with younger Democrats, a key part of the Democratic base. This issue isn’t winning him much credit elsewhere either.

That said, it doesn’t seem as damning for his prospects at election as his weakness on the economy, at least nationally. Plus, given recent positive economic news, will Biden get credit? In past elections, presidents presiding over good and improving economies have tended to see improvements in their approval ratings. That doesn’t seem to be the case yet –stay tuned.