The Hunter Biden verdict doesn’t move Americans

About a week after former President Donald Trump’s historic criminal trial found him guilty, President Joe Biden’s son Hunter received his own guilty verdict on charges accusing him of lying about his drug use to purchase a gun.

The two verdicts aren’t necessarily the same – President Joe Biden wasn’t involved in Hunter’s verdict, while a jury in New York found Trump directly guilty for his involvement in hush money payments during the 2016 election.

Nonetheless, both are historic firsts for the country. Never has a sitting president’s child been found guilty of a crime while he was in office. Never has a former president and current major presidential candidate been deemed a convicted felon.

In light of this, below are five charts on how Americans view Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict and how it compares to Trump’s guilty verdict.

1. Most Americans know about the trials. Most Americans have at least heard about the Hunter Biden trial, though just a minority have heard a great deal about it. A decisive majority of Americans have also heard about the verdict in the New York hush money trial against Trump.

   

2. Not as polarizing. Fewer Americans believe the Hunter Biden indictment was politically motivated compared to the Trump indictment. Additionally, there isn’t as wide of a political gap when it comes to the Hunter Biden indictment compared to the Trump indictment. Trump remains a polarizing center of gravity in American politics.

   

3. Little impact. Despite the historic nature of each guilty verdict, Americans are largely unphased by these developments. For a majority of Americans, the guilty verdicts do not impact their likelihood to vote for Biden or Trump. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

   

4. Still a toss-up. That leaves us in roughly the same spot we were in before the verdicts in the race for the White House. We’re still far out from Election Day, so it’s worth noting that horserace polling conducted now won’t necessarily predict the ultimate outcome. But if it’s any indication of the impact these legal troubles have on Trump and Joe Biden’s electoral chances – next to nil.

   

5. What issues will decide the election? The candidate who performs best on the main issue wins the election 85% of the time. The verdicts are not necessarily the top worry for Americans. However, heading into election season, what is the main issue seems to be a tossup between the economy and political extremism and threats to democracy. Trump does better on the economy, and Biden does slightly better on political extremism. Watch this space.

   

In this entrenched, polarized time it is hard to move the needle and sway public opinion. At one point, scandals would have shaken and broken political campaigns. Now, that’s not as true. Even during historic events, like the guilty verdicts for Hunter Biden and former President Trump, the public is largely not moved.

However, the fundamentals of an election—the context, presidential approval, and the main issue—are still the same. That’s what’s worth zeroing in on as we inch closer to November.