What presidential approval and the main issue say about Biden’s chances at reelection

Right now, across most early election polling, the 2024 Presidential election is roughly a tie between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

That said, we’re still several months out from the election, and many Americans aren’t paying close attention just yet. Plus, early polling doesn’t necessarily reflect the eventual election results.

Where else can we look to get a pulse on the direction of the 2024 election? Other indicators, like presidential approval and the main issue, can give us another window into how November may pan out.

Below are five charts on where Biden stands among the American public and what these key indicators say about Biden as we inch closer and closer to the 2024 election.

1. Biden’s job approval remains muted. Since 2022, Biden’s job approval rating has hovered between the mid 30 to low 40 percent area. That said, historically, presidents presiding over strong or improving economies have seen a rise in their approval ratings heading into an election. Biden also saw a slight uptick back into the low 40s this month after a few months in the high 30s. If this holds up, Biden could be due for an approval ascent.
2. Why Biden’s approval rating matters. Forty percent approval is roughly the tipping point that gives an incumbent a 50-50 chance at winning their reelection. If Biden can improve his approval rating from here, his chances only stand to benefit. Watch this space.
3. For Biden, protecting Democracy is a clear issue to lean on. Around a year ago, Biden’s biggest weakness on the main issues was the economy. Now, immigration has also risen to the forefront as a major issue and is a clear Biden weakness. Good news for Biden though: since we’ve started measuring political extremism and threats to democracy as a main issue in February, it has become a clear top concern among Americans and is an issue Biden excels at.
4. Troubling signs for Biden? Biden’s approval is roughly in the same spot as it was a year ago. But his approval among Black, Hispanic, and younger Americans have seen drops compared to last year. Given that these groups have historically leaned Democrat, cause for concern? Or can Biden shore up support among these key constituency groups?
5. Democracy is the main issue – just not for everyone. Demographics that care more about the economy or immigration over political extremism and threats to democracy are mostly Trump-leaning groups. But, importantly for Biden, Black, Hispanic, and younger Americans care more about the economy and might be less persuaded by Biden’s strength when it comes to political extremism and threats to Democracy. How can Biden win these groups back?

What can we make of these indicators? Biden’s approval right now would give him a roughly 50-50 shot at winning the election. And while we’ve found that the candidate that is strongest at the main issue wins an election roughly 85% of the time, political extremism and threats to democracy is only the main issue by a slim margin over the economy and immigration, suggesting Biden might not have a truly strong hold over the main issue.

What we can tell: the 2024 election is certain to be uncertain, but looking at presidential approval and the main issue gives us some clues about how things will shake out as we get closer to November.