The indictment, the primaries, and 2024

Donald Trump added to his long list of firsts Thursday, becoming the first former president to face federal criminal charges, relating to his alleged unlawful possession of classified documents.

With the GOP primaries heating up and more challengers jumping in the race, we will see how this new indictment plays with the base. After facing a criminal indictment in March, Trump only seemed to fare better among the field of GOP hopefuls. In our age of two Americas, where each side unwaveringly backs their team, it’s hard to cut into that support.

Will a second charge change anything? Below are five charts exploring how public opinion among Republicans has shifted over Trump’s two indictments and a look at the other factors that will affect the 2024 presidential election.

1. Trump’s race to lose. Following his first indictment, Trump jumped 10-points in the polls. Since then, his level of support returned to about what it was before the indictment. Still, with a growing GOP primary field and his latest indictment, these numbers may shift more. Will he maintain his lead over his rivals? We will see.
2. Main issue in limbo. Analyzing hundreds of elections, 85% of candidates who perform well on the main issue win their election. The problem is figuring out what the main issue will be come Election Day. In our divided country, where red and blue Americans live in different realities, few can agree on what the main issue is. It’s still too early to say what problem will capture the country’s attention for 2024, but it will likely come down to one of two things: the economy or the culture war issue du jour. Watch this space. It will define the denizen of the White House in 2025.
3. Sitting at the tipping point. Right now, President Biden’s approval rating is stalling out in the low 40’s. Not a great showing. If he falls below 40%, his reelection bid will begin to look dire. If his approval stays right where it is now, it gives him slightly better than a 50/50 chance of winning reelection. He is teetering but it’s not over yet.
4. Biden is the best shot. Looking at global election patterns, if the election were held today with Biden’s 41% approval rating, his re-election chances would be slightly better than a coin-flip. It could be better; it could be worse. If Biden’s approval falls any lower, he could have problems. However, Biden not running is far worse for Democrats, as the odds for a successor candidate are not good. These are numbers we will keep tracking. Looking forward, keep an eye on approval ratings.
5. Fuzzy Logic. Still, even as all things 2024 hangs in the air, it’s important to remember that polls are not that accurate this far out from Election Day. Polls are snapshots in time, showing us the shape of public opinion in one moment. They do worse at predicting the distant future. The picture now is that Biden is in a tentative spot as Trump leads his primary challengers. With indictments and months until the first ballots, a lot can still happen. Let’s wait and see.

One criminal conviction didn’t seem to rattle Trump’s chances at the 2024 Republican nomination. Given the political dynamics in our divided time, it’s hard to imagine how a second charge will change this.

The 2024 presidential election is still a long way away and a lot can still change. But time and time again, we’re still getting signs that it’s going to look very familiar. Keep your eyes peeled for main problems, approval ratings, and fuzzy polls. We will.