Most Americans support Biden leaving the race, Democrats rally behind Harris

Washington DC, July 23, 2024 — The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted immediately after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor, shows that if Harris were to be the Democratic nominee, the race between her and Republican nominee Donald Trump would be too close to call. A strong majority of Americans support Biden stepping out the of the 2024 race and a majority believes he should finish out the term as president. A strong majority of Democrats support Harris pursuing the nomination and believe the Democratic party should rally around her so she can build a campaign. Since Biden's announcement that he is no longer running for president and the nomination of Republican Senator J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, both Vance and Harris have seen a jump in their favorability ratings among Americans. 

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Detailed findings

Seventy-eight percent of Americans and 83% of registered voters, as well as a majority of Democrats (86%) and independents (79%), support Biden leaving the presidential race. About half of Americans (48%) support Harris running as the Democratic nominee, including 89% of Democrats. In a question asked only among Democrats and independents that lean Democrat, 74% of Democrats say that the party and Democratic voters should get behind Harris now so she can immediately build a campaign, versus 26% of Democrats who say that multiple candidates should compete for the party's nomination and that the candidate should be selected at the Democratic National Convention. Fifty-seven percent of Americans support Biden serving out the rest of his term as president, including 62% of registered voters, 88% of Democrats, and 57% of independents. Only 35% of Republicans say they support Biden finishing his term. 

If the election for president were held today, among registered voters, Harris (44%) and Trump (42%) would be locked in a race that is too close to call. In the last Reuters/Ipsos poll before Biden announced his withdrawal, he was also statistically tied with Trump (41% Biden vs 43% Trump) among registered voters. In a three-way race including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris has a slight edge over Trump: Harris (42%), Trump (38%), and Kennedy Jr. (8%).

Since Biden announced he would no longer be running for president, Harris' favorability numbers increased from 39% (July 15-16 poll) to 44% among all Americans. Half (50%) of Americans view her unfavorably, statistically unchanged from last week (53%). Trump's favorability numbers are unchanged from the poll last week (41%) to this week (41%). Half (55%) hold an unfavorable view of him, also unchanged from last week (55%). Trump's running mate, Vance, is also seeing a shift in his favorability numbers. Last week, a plurality of Americans said they did not know who he is (44%), while 24% of Americans said they held a favorable opinion of him versus 30% who held an unfavorable opinion of him. This week, the number of people saying they have not heard of him dropped 18 points to 26%, his favorability rating increased to 32%, and his unfavorable rating increased to 39%.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted July 22-23, 2024, by Ipsos for Reuters using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,241 general population adults age 18 or older in the United States. The sample includes 1,018 registered voters, 426 Democrats, 376 Republicans, and 341 Independents.

The margin of sampling error for this study is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.15. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. The poll also has a margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for registered voters, plus or minus 5.0 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.3 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 5.7 percentage points for independents. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which is 1.12 among registered voters, 1.10 among Democrats, 1.09 among Republicans, and 1.14 among independents.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, Census region, education, household income, metropolitan status, and political party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Political Party benchmarks came from NPORS 2024. More details about the weighting benchmarks for this study can be found below:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Political party (Republican, Democrat, Independent, Other/Not Asked/Skipped)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr
Director, U.S.
Public Affairs
[email protected]

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