Cliff’s Take: What The Chauvin Trial Verdict Tells Us
We are just about at the end of President Biden's first 100 days in office. The transformation from January is almost unbelievable. From the gloom of our COVID winter, we are seeing new optimism. America is beginning to reemerge – a vaccine-driven change.
But let’s not forget another important moment in our nation’s history that occurred this past week – the conclusion of the Derek Chauvin trial. The verdict was guilty on all counts. A very extraordinary story, a killer cop convicted; paired with an all too ordinary story, a Black man killed.
The bipartisan consensus that Chauvin was guilty is another extraordinary result. But, that does not mean that we as a nation are all that much closer to seeing eye to eye on these issues. Racial injustice is intertwined with the DNA of this country. Disentangling the two will not be the work of a moment or one guilty verdict.
It is also a reminder of the many polarizing issues that simmer beneath the surface of our COVID-preoccupied present. Once the pandemic recedes into the distance, they will still be there.
Below I detail the most relevant polling data of the week.
- Bipartisan verdict; partisan meaning. Again, the bipartisan consensus on Chauvin’s guilty verdict looks on the surface like a rare example of Americans rallying around a common truth. But are they really? Poke a little beneath the topsoil, and you see that there is less common ground. Americans differ in their interpretation of George Floyd’s death. The tale of two Americas.
- Our new world. Again, our pandemic recovery might be baby steps every week. But America is continually reemerging. Look at the data. Optimism follows. Or does it proceed? It doesn’t matter. Things are looking up.
- Shifting sands. Our rosy national picture is changing what Americans see as the main problem. It is less about COVID and the economy and more about other priorities, like immigration and inequality. These issues are much more ingrained and hit at our tribalized core. Choppy waters ahead? I think so.
- Biden’s Achilles heel. The main issues growing in importance – immigration, inequality, and other social problems— all have sunk many a wayward ship. Biden has been surfing the COVID wave, with his approval ratings in the mid-50's range. But he faces strong head winds in the latter half of the year.
- Local politics. Digressing a bit from the national to the local, did you see our NY mayoral primary poll results this week? The horse race is pretty clear at this point—it’s all about Andrew Yang. Look at the data. But beware of false positives. A closer look suggests a Yang-Eric Adams race after controlling for name recognition. Who will win? A former presidential hopeful or an NYC borough president? Only time will tell.
So, what does this all mean? We are likely at an inflection point. Biden has sailed along so far under the auspices of his good COVID and vaccine management. But, look out for the shoals ahead, presaged by our national focus on race and immigration – two polarizing issues that most certainly will not be going away any time soon. The nuances of our many Americas.
Be safe and be sane.
For more information, please contact:
Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]
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