Ipsos Global @dvisor: Global Consumer Confidence Is on the Rise
Washington, DC -July 2017’s global Primary Index score of 48.7 shows a three-month gain of 1.2 point. The Primary Index reflects attitudes of consumers in 24 countries on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situation, savings, and confidence to make large investments, as measured monthly by Ipsos Public Affairs.
The Primary Index is up by 1.5 points or more over a three-month period in eight countries, including the United States and Canada. Largest increases are seen in South Korea (+8.1), France (+3.8), and Poland (+3.3). Only South Africa (-3.3) records a notable drop. Countries with the highest Primary Index scores are China (67.1), India (66.3), Sweden (62.1), and the U.S. (61.5). Those with the lowest scores are Italy (37.0), South Africa (38.1), and Brazil (38.6).
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in an ongoing survey of consumers from 24 countries with more than 17,500 interviews conducted each month since 2010.
Subsets of the Primary Index, including the Jobs Index reflecting perceptions of job security, the Expectations Index reflecting economic expectations, and the Investment Index reflecting perceptions of the investment climate, are all up globally.
At 56.3, July 2017’s global Jobs Index score shows a three-month increase of 1.1 point with gains of 1.5 points or more in 12 countries. The largest gains are seen in France (+4.0 points), the U.S. (+3.7) and Turkey (+2.7). Only South Africa (-2.4) and Great Britain (-1.5) show notable losses. The countries surveyed presenting the largest Jobs Index scores are Sweden (73.2), Germany (70.8), the U.S. (70.0), and China (also 70.0). Countries with the lowest scores are Brazil (30.3), Mexico (42.3), South Africa (44.1), Turkey (44.6), and Russia (45.3).
The global Expectations Index score of 57.7 is up 0.7 point over a 3-month period. Gains of 1.5 points or more are recorded in six countries and losses of 1.5 points or more in four countries. The largest increases are seen in South Korea (+10.7), Poland (+3.0), and France (+1.9) and the largest decreases in South Africa (-3.9), Brazil (-2.6), and Argentina (-1.8). India (73.4) and China (71.1) have the highest Expectations Index scores, while South Africa (46.1), Turkey (48.3), and Italy (48.8) have the lowest ones.
The global Investment Index shows a 3-month gain of 1.1 point to 42.1. Eight countries record gains of 1.5 points or more with the largest ones in South Korea (+8.3), France (+4.2), and Poland (+3.4). Two countries see their Investment Index drop by 1.5 points or more: South Africa (-4.1) and Israel (-1.8). Countries with the highest Investment Index scores are India (+67.9), China (+64.4), Sweden (+57.1), and the U.S. (+56.4). Those with the lowest scores are Japan (25.7), Italy (27.8), and Hungary (31.4).
About the Study
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please go to www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5836.
The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The questions used for the PCSI and for Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are the following:
- Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [COUNTRY]? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad*
- Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.*
- Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?*
- Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
- Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
- Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
- Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
The PCSI Index is benchmarked to a baseline of 100 assigned at its introduction in January 2010. Index number is calculated by utilizing data from the survey results. Responses are divided into aggregated Top Box (Reward) numbers and Bottom Box (Penalty) numbers. Using Shapely Value Analysis, values were generated for the penalty and reward for each question. The magnitude of each question is the difference between the reward and penalty. An Importance factor, which the ultimate weight of the particular question in the index, is the magnitude of each question divided by the total magnitude of all questions. A Top Box Weight for each question is calculated by dividing the Reward by the magnitude of each question. Similarly, the Bottom Weight for each question is calculated by dividing the Penalty for each question by magnitude of the same. The Index Value for each question is calculated by using the formula: Importance x (Top Box Wt * Top Box %) - (Bottom Box Wt * Bottom box %).
The most recent Global @dvisor fieldwork periods were:
- July 2017 wave: June 23 - July 9
- June 2017 wave: May 26 – Jun3 7
- May 2017 wave: April 21 - May 5
- April 2017 wave: March 24 - April 12
- March 2017 wave: February 17 - March 8
- February 2017 wave: January 20 – February 3
* Trended percentage results to each of these three questions are reported monthly in Ipsos’s Economic Pulse of World (go to https://www.ipsos.com/en/economic-pulse-world ).
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Nicolas Boyon
Senior Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 212.293.6544
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.
