U.S. consumer confidence slips from last week’s pandemic high

All sub-indices pull back

The author(s)

  • Catherine Morris Data Journalist
  • Sara Machi Research Analyst, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, June 17, 2021 — Tumbling 2.4 points from a new pandemic record high last week, American consumers’ sentiment now reads at 60.0 in this week’s Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker.

While all sub-indices experience a decline this week, the greatest loss is seen in the Current sub-index. Despite this week’s dampening in sentiment, six in ten continue to agree that the economy will recover quickly once COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed and that businesses should be allowed to open up again even if the virus is not contained.

Demographic groups experiencing the greatest decrease in sentiment since last week include Westerners (-6.4 points), Americans age 18 to 34 (-5.2 points), unmarried Americans (-5.2 points), those earning less than $50k (-5 points), and urban residents (-4.9 points).

The only group to see a meaningful increase in consumer sentiment this week is those earning more than $100k (+1.9 points); this reading marks a new pandemic high.


Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.

Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.


Detailed Findings

1. Scoring at 60.0, the latest Overall Consumer Confidence falls 2.4 points from last week.

  • The Confidence index is currently 7.5 points above the pandemic average and in line (-0.1 point) with where it stood in early March 2020, prior to the first lockdowns (60.1).

Consumer Confidence

2. The Current sub-index slips 3.5 points from last week, while the Expectations and Investment sub-indices fall 1.7 and 2.6 points respectively.

Sub-indices

3. The Jobs sub-index drops 2.6 points from last week as Americans indicate diminished confidence in their job security relative to six months ago.

  • The proportion of Americans who say they are now more confident in their job security compared to 6 months ago is at 62%, down 6 points from last week.
  • The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 33%, unchanged from last week.
  • In addition, 35% say it’s likely they, a family member or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, up 2 points from last week.

4. The proportion who believe the economy will recover quickly as restrictions to control the coronavirus pandemic are relaxed falls 5 points to 62%.

Recover quickly

5. Nearly seven in ten now agree that the economy should be allowed to start up again before the pandemic is fully contained (66%, +3 points from last week).

Restart

6. Over half continue to express increased comfort with making major and other household purchases.

  • 52% say they are more comfortable making major household purchases compared to six months ago, down 1 point from last week.

Major Purchase

  • 57% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases compared to six months ago, down 2 points from last week.

Other Purchase

Questions

The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:

  1. Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in the U.S.? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
  2. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
  3. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
  4. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
  5. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
  6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
  7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
  8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
  9. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
  10. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
  11. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?

Additional questions

Q. To what extent do you agree with the each of the following?

  • The economy will recover quickly once the lockdown is over.
  • We should restart the economy and allow businesses to open even if the virus is still not fully contained.

About the Study

These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted June 15-16, 2021 with a sample of 967 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=967, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.1 percentage points).

Findings from March 2010 to early March 2020 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index and a Jobs Index.

Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420 2025
[email protected]

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations Specialist, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 718 755-8829
kate.silvers[email protected]

For more information on COVID-19 please click here

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest Insights and Analytics company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

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The author(s)

  • Catherine Morris Data Journalist
  • Sara Machi Research Analyst, Public Affairs

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