Cliff’s Take: America’s Parallel Realities Become More Entrenched

It’s May—and we are all getting antsy.  People are beginning to poke their heads out a bit. Our polling with Axios shows that increasingly more people have visited family and friends in the last several weeks.   But the big story is the official unemployment rate, out today and now at 14.7%. This is the fastest jump ever recorded in the series history.  And many think it is understated.

1. Irrational exuberance against the backdrop of Depression-like numbers. Despite the ugly unemployment news today, our consumer confidence time-series still has not reached its nadir of 35 points, as it did during the darkest period of the Great Recession. Why? As noted last week, many Americans still believe that there will be a quick recovery (43% in total). There is a reckoning if this does not come to pass. Once fantasy runs into cold hard reality, the numbers will change and change quickly. 

    

2. Partisanship drives irrational exuberance. Whether (or not) you believe in a fast recovery depends on your political stripes. Indeed, 58% of Republicans believe that there will be a fast recovery, while only 32% of Democrats think the same. Maybe we should rethink party mascots in our COVID-19 world? Imagine it: Republicans as “bulls” and Democrats as “bears.” What happens if the dream of a quick recovery is shattered by reality?  Electoral disaster for Republicans?  Maybe not in our partisan world. 

    

3. Republicans anxious to reopen. According to our most recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, only 35% of Republicans think it is a bad idea to reopen, compared to 92% of Democrats. We as Americans live in two completely different worlds—one safe, the other unsafe; one blue the other red.  Some things don’t change. 
4. Americans losing trust in all levels of government’s ability to deal with COVID-19. Partisan differences are large and remain relatively constant.  But both blue and red America are losing trust in government. There are few safe ships in this Hobbesian war against all —what humans want in a time of need. What are the electoral implications? The long-term societal consequences? We will see. 

    

5. But there is nuance in declining trust in state governments. The state picture, while worsening, is interesting to note. States—like Texas, Florida, and Georgia—run by Republican governors are taking a pounding from their citizens.  In contrast, New York and California have held constant. Again, people are afraid of our COVID-19 world. Let’s see if the Republican governors have made the right bet: jobs over health. We should know by mid-summer. 

    

For further analysis of the above, take a look at my most recent interview with Tim Farley. Again, be safe and be sane.

For more information, please contact:

Clifford Young

President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]

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