Swing state electorate more Republican than Democratic

Washington, D.C., November 26, 2024 – New polling from Ipsos conducted in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada following the same group of Americans across the election finds that the electorate in the swing states was more Republican than Democratic, mirroring patterns observed in Ipsos’ national post-election polling. Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump turned out more of his 2020 base in the swing states, while Vice President Kamla Harris did not turn out President Joe Biden’s 2020 base at the same level.

Swing state residents before the election were split on whether Trump’s plans or policies would help or hurt them, though more in these key states had heard about his policies over the policies and plans of Harris. Inflation remains a top concern for swing state residents, consistent with polling done throughout the election. After a highly contentious election, a bare majority of residents in the swing states feel that the U.S. generally has free and fair elections.

Detailed findings:

1. In the 2024 election, the electorate in the swing states was more Republican than Democrat, much like it was nationally. Harris struggled to turnout Biden’s 2020 base, while Trump was able to more effectively turnout his 2020 supporters.

• Among swing state residents who voted in the 2024 election, more are Republican (50%) than Democrat (46%), similar to the breakdown nationally.
• However, among those who were on the fence before the election, far more Trump supporters (49%) than Harris supporters (34%) showed up to vote on Election Day.
• Likewise, Trump did a more effective job at turning out his 2020 base. Ninety-two percent of swing state residents who say they voted for Trump in 2020 did so in 2024, too. Only 89% of swing state residents who say they voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 ended up voting for Vice President Kamala Harris.

2. Before the election, swing state residents were split on whether Trump’s plans and policies would help or hurt them personally. However, a plurality says they thought the Project 2025 policy proposal would hurt them.

• While 41% of swing state residents say they thought Trump’s plans and policies would hurt them if he won, a similar share (40%) say they thought these policies would help them. Just 16% say they thought it would have no impact.
• More swing state residents say they heard a great deal or a fair amount before the election about Trump’s plans and policies than Harris’ (65% vs. 52%, respectively).
• Forty-seven percent of swing state residents say they thought the Project 2025 policy proposal would hurt them personally before the election. Just 9% say they thought it would help them. Meanwhile, 37% say they thought it would have no impact on them personally.
• Notably, swing state residents are split in what they heard, read, or saw about the Project 2025 policy proposals before the election, with 49% saying they heard a fair amount or great deal, and 49% saying they did not hear much. However, that is significantly higher than the share of Americans nationally who say they heard at least a fair amount about Project 2025 before the election (40%).

3. Inflation remains a top worry for swing state residents.

• Inflation or increasing costs is the issue most swing state residents feel is the most important problem facing the country, consistent with Ipsos polling conducted before the election. Over half (54%) report this as a worry, followed by immigration (36%) and political extremism (23%). There are significant partisan differences on the main problem, with Republicans far more worried about inflation (73%) and immigration (57%), and Democrats more concerned with political extremism (38%).
• A plurality of swing state residents (37%) say inflation is the single most important issue to them at this time. Republicans in the swing states rate inflation as the single most important issue to them (49%), while Democrats are split between inflation (22%) and political extremism (22%).
• However, in the past month, most in the swing states report seeing a lot about immigration (63%), inflation (61%), and abortion (52%), something that is true for Democrats and Republicans.
• Only 34% of swing state residents approve of the job President Biden is doing in office.

4. Much like at the national level, a bare majority of those in the swing states say elections in the U.S. are usually fair, and few say in-person voter fraud is a problem. However, Americans nationally and in the swing states are divided on whether voter discrimination is a problem.

• About half of Americans and swing state residents (52%, each) say elections in the U.S. are usually fair, but 19% disagree. One in five (22% nationally and 23% in the swing states) neither agree nor disagree.
• Just 21% of swing state residents say in-person voter fraud is a problem in this country. A plurality (46%) say it is not a problem. One in five (21%) say they neither agree nor disagree.
• One in three (33%) swing state residents agree that voter discrimination is a problem in the U.S., while 35% disagree and 23% say they neither agree nor disagree. These patterns match attitudes nationally, too.
• However, about one in ten swing state residents (13%) say they don’t bother to vote in elections, since there won’t ever be a real change that will make their day-to-day life better. Seven in ten swing state residents disagree with this sentiment, slightly higher than the national figure, while 13% neither agree nor disagree.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted November 14 to November 21, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,960 adults age 18 or older from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study. 

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.79. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. 

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. Within each state the data were weighted to adjust for age by gender, race/ethnicity, education, metropolitan status, household income, and 2024 presidential vote choice while party ID was adjusted at the aggregate level. The demographic benchmarks came from 2024 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the Pew NPORS 2024 study for the selected state, and the 2024 Presidential vote choice came from the election results as of Nov 20, 2024.

The weighting categories were as follows:

• State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Age (18-39, 40-64, 65+) by Gender (Male, Female)
• State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Race/Ethnicity (White only, non-Hispanic, non-White
• State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Education (Some college or less, Bachelor or Higher)
• State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Metro Status (Metro, non-Metro)
• State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by Household income (Less than $50,000, $50,000 to <$100,000 , $100,000 or higher)
• State (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI) by 2024 Presidential Vote Choice (Trump, Harris, Other/Did not vote)
• Party ID (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/None/Other/Did not vote, Lean Democrat, Democrat)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

About Ipsos

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