A tale of two Americas

In the five charts below, we unpack Americans' polarized reality on guns and immigration.

While politics in America has not been mild or easygoing any time in recent memory, this past week kicked it up another notch. In the past few days, former president Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan on fraud charges, a polarized and consequential state Supreme Court race concluded, and the Tennessee House GOP expelled two Black Democratic lawmakers over gun violence protests. What a week.

It’s not over yet. Title 42, the pandemic-era ban on immigration, ends in a month, which will inevitably restart debate on one of the hot-button topics of American politics.

In short, polarization is front and center in public conversation. In the five charts below, we unpack Americans polarized reality on guns and immigration.

  1. Polarized problems. Nothing divides Democrats and Republicans more than gun violence and immigration. For Democrats, gun violence is the main issue of the day. On the other side, many Republicans see immigration as the top problem for the country. Neither side agrees. It is the tale of Two Americas, laid out in red and blue.Democrats and Republicans are starkly divided on their view of the country’s main issues. 35% of Republicans see immigration as the most important topic facing the country, while only 7% of Democrats agree. On the other hand, 43% of Democrats see gun violence as the most important issue, while only 13% of Republicans agree. These re results from Ipsos polling conducted between March 21-29, 2023. Base size: All Americans (N=1,030), Republicans (N=275), Democrat (N=309)
  2. Gun owners vs. AR-15 owners. More Republicans than Democrats own guns. And when it comes to AR-15 ownership, that gap grows. Guns divide Americans, but AR-15s divide us even more. Again, an ideological divide defined by red and blue.AR-15 owners are less likely to be Democrats than gun owners overall. 38% of Republicans own a gun, while 17% of Democrats own a gun. 44% of Republicans own an AR-15 gun, while only 9% of Democrats own an AR-15 gun. Results from a Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 11, 2022. Base size: Gun owners (N=2,104), AR-15 owners (N=399)
  3. AR-15 divisions. Nearly all AR-15 owners have friends and family who also own AR-15s. For gun owners overall, that’s not the case. Much like our polarized friend and family groups, guns, and AR-15s in particular, act as a pervasive fault line for Americans. There is no halfway or in-between here. You are either on the team or not on the team. The tale of “two” again.Nearly all AR-15 owners have friends who also own AR-15s. Among AR-15 owners, 95% have at least a few friends and family that own an AR-15, while only 5% AR-15 owners know no one else who owns AR-15s. Among all gun owners, 62% know at least a few friends and family who own an AR-15, while 37% know no one who owns an AR-15.
  4. Nativism polarized. Over the past nearly three decades, Republicans and Democrats have moved farther apart on nativism. In the mid-1990s, most Democrats and Republicans agreed that employers should prioritize hiring people from this country over immigrants. While opinion among Republicans is stable, Democrats dropped 28 points on this question. It is a divisive and defining issue. This is our Nativist nation.Nativist sentiment is starkly partisan. In 2023, 64% of Republicans agreed that when jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants. That's held largely constant since polling began in 1995 on the topic when 63% of Republicans agreed with that statement. Democrat opinion has dropped precipitously during that same time, starting at 57% agreeing that when jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants. Now, in 2023, only 23% feel the same. At the topline, 55% of Americans agreed with the statement in 1995, while 44% agreed in 2023. Source: World Values Survey (1995 and 2011), Ipsos (2016), NPR/Ipsos (2020 and 2022), Ipsos 2023
  5. Nativism by the numbers. When understanding nativist attitudes, partisanship and news source beat out all other demographics in understanding the social pressure points around nativism. College education, age, and race also drive differences here, but not to the same extent. Nativism splits the country in two.Media source and partisanship divide Americans on immigration. 35% of Americans agree that immigrants take important social services away from real Americans. The deepest divisions are on primary source news source, where 74% of people who follow conservative news agree while only 31% of people who follow mainstream agree. Partisanship is also a major divider, with 63% of Republicans agreeing and 16% of Democrats feeling the same. Source: Ipsos. Conducted between March 21-29, 2023. Base size: All Americans (N=1,030), Republicans (N=275), Democrat (N=309)

The country is deeply divided. Guns and immigration are one of the most pronounced splits in attitude. Democrats see guns as the issue of the day, while Republicans don’t. Neither side can agree on immigration. What is left is two Americas with two different sets of worries, communities, and ideas of what it means to be American. What did Lincoln say about a “house divided”?  This is our reality today.

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