The direction of the country is nothing more than a nation's measurement of confidence - and has a strong correlation with the consumer confidence index. What continues to negatively impact this perception are the frequent corruption scandals publically manifested by the "Lava Jato", the negative image of the political class and the delay of the economic crisis upturn. Odebrecht's plea bargain may result in more political instability and affect the governability of the current administration - especially if the name of the current President is denounced.
At no time did the current government create positive expectations and still has been unable to create an upward trend in its image - not even with the reforms agenda, seen with suspicion by the population - who understands very little about these proposals, as pointed out by several research data from Ipsos. In addition, Temer is seen as a traditional politician - this same politics that has been rejected in the elections (in Brazil and in the world), be it with the choice of "outsider" candidates or more conservative, be it with the high rate of non-attendance to polls. The negative image of Michel Temer as a politician, contributes to affect even more the bad or very bad evaluation of his administration.
Consumer confidence index
The consumer confidence is still reflecting its lack of expectations regarding the current government and the country's perspective. It is natural that in a context of strong economic retraction the perception of the current personal situation is negative, but it is worth pointing out that the medium term (6 months) indicators are still very slow, precisely because people don't see an improvment in the horizon for the country. The index has shown slight declines in all social classes, despite having grown in the Southeast (a good outlook, since they tend to be the first to feel effects of the economic crises). The employment security indicator remains stagnant, desmonstrating that the retake rhythm of confidence in consumption will strongly depend on the economy's upturn (which cannot suffer impacts from the political crisis).
Populism or a Banana? The Rise of a New Political Agenda
At Ipsos, we are fundamentally asking two questions about our world today. One, are we seeing something significantly different when it comes to politics both domestically and globally? Put differently, have the drivers of politics changed? And second, what is going on? Many have called it populism, is that the case or is it something else (a banana)?