Global consumer confidence falls to lowest point since May 2021

National sentiment at its lowest in over a year for world’s six largest advanced economies

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US
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Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index this month reads at 46.9, falling 0.7 point since June and sitting at its lowest point since May 2021 (46.4). The index has not seen an increase since before the invasion of Ukraine and sits below its February reading by 1.8 points.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from 23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between June 24 and July 8, 2022.

Among the countries surveyed, only China shows a significant gain (+2.0 points) in its National Index since June, while just three countries — Hungary (-3.0 points), the United States (-1.7 points), and Italy (-1.5 points) — show significant declines. While many countries show a month-over-month drop in their National Index too small to be significant (at least 1.5 points at the country level), global sentiment is clearly on a downward path due to ongoing inflationary pressures, the war in Ukraine, and COVID-19. For proof, among all 23 countries, 14 show a National Index score that is significantly lower than it was three months ago. Furthermore, each of the world’s six largest advanced economies—the United States, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France, and Italy—have reached their lowest consumer confidence levels in more than a year.

Six countries show a significant drop since last month in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. In addition, four countries show a significant drop in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment. Finally, Hungary, Sweden, and Argentina show significant declines in their Jobs Confidence Index, while jobs sentiment is up significantly in China.

National Index Trends

This month, Saudi Arabia continues to hold the highest National Index score. This is the fourth consecutive month that Saudi Arabia has set a record high score. Saudi Arabia and China are the only countries with a National Index score above 70.

Six other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: India (63.9), Sweden (54.5), Australia (53.5), the United States (51.7), Canada (50.8), and Mexico (50.2).

Six countries now show a National Index below 40: South Africa (38.7), Japan (38.5), Poland (38.5), Argentina (36.3), Hungary (34.7), and Turkey (27.0). For the second consecutive month, Turkey has set its lowest National Index score in the tracker’s 12-year history, and it has not been above 35 since the pandemic started in March 2020.

Just five countries have a National Index score that is significantly higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic: Saudi Arabia (+7.1), India (+4.3), Australia (+2.9), South Korea (+2.2), and China (+1.5). In contrast, it is significantly lower than pre-pandemic in 13 countries: the U.S. (-10.9), Hungary (-9.7), Poland (-9.1), Turkey (-7.0), Germany (-5.8), Great Britain (-5.6), Israel (-4.5), Belgium (-4.5), Brazil (-4.0), Argentina (-4.0), Japan (-2.0), South Africa (-1.7), and Canada (-1.6).

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

Among 23 countries:

  • Four countries show a significant drop (at least 1.5 points) in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ financial, economic, and employment outlook: Hungary, South Korea, Spain, and Saudi Arabia. For a second, consecutive month none of the countries surveyed showed a significant gain.  
  • Six countries (Hungary, the U.S., Israel, Italy, South Korea, and Australia) show significant losses in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. China is the only country to show a significant gain.
  • China is also the only country to show a significant month-on-month gain in its Jobs Index, while Hungary, Sweden and Argentina all show a significant drop.

About this study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. The results are based on interviews with a total of 17,000+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, and South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US

Consumer & Shopper