July 2023: Consumer confidence declines sharply among many European countries

Sentiment is significantly down in Great Britain, France, Hungary, and the Netherlands.

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  • Johnny Sawyer Public Affairs, US
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Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index continues to show stability this month, up 0.2 point from last month to 47.6. Among 29 economies measured, seven show significant gains in consumer sentiment while six show a notable decline. The global Current and Investment indices are up by half a point, while the Expectations index is down half a point. The global Jobs index remains virtually unchanged for the second consecutive month.

Sentiment increased most of all in the U.S. (+4.8 points) after last month’s abrupt decline that could potentially be attributed to Americans’ concerns about the months-long fight in Congress over raising the U.S. debt ceiling and fears of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. This month’s score is the highest for the U.S. in fourteen months.

In contrast, consumer confidence fell sharply in many European countries this month. Hungary, which remains in recession and continues to experience high inflation, shows the steepest drop this month among all countries (-4.7 points). Great Britain, also dealing with inflationary pressures, declined by 4.2 points after reaching its highest point in fifteen months last month. Sentiment is also down significantly in both the Netherlands (-2.4) and France (-2.1).

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ Overall or “National” indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 21,000 adults under the age of 75 from 29 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between June 23 and July 7, 2023.

Consumer sentiment in 29 countries

Among the 29 countries, Indonesia (63.7) continues to hold the highest National Index score this month. Brazil (60.0), whose score this month is the country’s highest since February 2013, joins Indonesia as the only countries with a National Index score of 60 or higher.

Seven other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Mexico (57.2), India (56.8), Singapore (56.5), Thailand (56.0), the U.S. (54.4), Sweden (52.2), and the Netherlands (50.8).

In contrast, just four countries show a National Index below the 40-point mark: Japan (38.9), Argentina (37.3), Turkey (35.7), and Hungary (32.7). Of note, South Korea (41.7) has risen above the 40-point mark for the first time since July 2022.

Compared to 12 months ago, Australia (-5.0) is the only country to show a significant drop, while Brazil (+13.9) and Turkey (+10.0) continue to show the largest gains.

Trends

Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index (based on all 29 countries surveyed) currently reads at 47.6, showing stability (+0.2 point) for the second consecutive month. Based only on the “legacy 20 countries” tracked since March 2010, it would read at 45.6.

The Current sub-index, reflecting consumers’ perceptions of the economic climate and their current purchasing, jobs, and investment confidence, shows a gain across the 29 countries of 0.5 point to 38.1. The index has had significant month-over-month increases for four consecutive months and has gained 2.6 points in that time frame. Nine countries show a significant month-over-month gain (at least 2 points) in their Current index, while seven countries show a significant loss.  

The Investment sub-index, indicative of consumers’ perception of the investment climate, records a 29-country average increase of 0.5 point since last month to 40.2. After showing volatility to begin the year, the index has gained 2.5 points in the past four months. Nine countries show a significant gain in their Investment index, and seven countries show significant losses.

The Expectations sub-index, indicative of consumer expectations about future economic conditions, declined by 0.5 point this month and sits at 55.9. In total, just four countries show significant gains in their Expectations index, compared to nine that show significant losses.

The Jobs sub-index, reflecting perceptions about jobs security and the jobs market, remains virtually unchanged (+0.1) and sits at 57.2 this month. Seven countries show significant gains in their Jobs index, while six countries show significant losses.

Of note, Great Britain and Hungary show significant declines (of at least 2 points) across all four sub-indices. In contrast, Israel is the only country to show significant month-over-month gains across all four sub-indices.

About the study

These findings are based on data from a monthly 29-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online survey platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform. They are first reported each month by Refinitiv as the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).

The results are based on interviews with over 21,200 adults aged 18+ in India, 18-74 in Canada, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries.

The author(s)
  • Johnny Sawyer Public Affairs, US

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