Barack Obama and Joe Biden have it in the bag. Oh? Not necessarily!

This article originally appeared in The American magazine - www.theamerican.co.uk

At the end of the Democratic Convention, their `bounce' in one poll took them to a seven point lead over Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin. There were those in the media who said then "it's all over". Yet ten days later, the McCain/Palin team had moved into a two point lead with the election nine weeks ahead.

I said last month's column "Where it counts however is not in the national polls we read and hear about, but in the individual states, and there the race is much closer, according to my source of American election what-you-need-to-know, www.realclearpolitics.com."

In last month's article, I quoted the RCP experts who used the state-by-state polls to make their best guess as to the state of play with nine weeks to go as Obama by a tiny win, 273 to 265, just over the 270 electoral vote winning post.

Now, a month later (17.10.08), everything's turned round again, with the RCP national polls averaging 6.9.  Their key states' electoral college score stands at 364 for Obama to 174 for Palin, a veritable landslide.  It could turn again (although I suspect it won't).  So do the punters, as the gambling odds are now heavily on Obama to win.

Much has been written about the so-called Bradley effect, about the idea that whites are lying or kidding themselves when they say they'll vote for Obama, and when it comes to pulling the lever they'll not, and therefore the polls are overestimating the Democrat's lead. 

There are two problems about this.  First, that it's based on an old academic article using data now some 15 years old. More recent evidence, based on six different cases where there has been a black/white contest, five senate and one governor, there's no sign of the Bradley effect at work. Second, that if it does affect some voters, they'll most likely be in the `red' states, the Republican's safe states in the South and midwest and western states.

What about the Brits?

If they had a vote, the British public tell us that they'd give the American election to the Democratic candidates for President, Barack Obama, and Vice President, Joe Biden by a four to one margin. 

And when asked "Which candidate, if either, do you think would do the most to strengthen the relationship between Britain and America, John McCain or Barak Obama?", by 2.5 to 1, 40% to 16%, said Obama rather than McCain.  Another 9% said neither and a third (35%) didn't know.

Obama and Biden were thought to be the better at improving America's economy by 38% to 14% for McCain and Palin.  And by an even wider margin, 55% to 9%, 5.5 to 1, Obama and Biden were thought to be potentially better at improving America's image abroad than the Republicans.

 For a note on polls about the presidential election, see this useful primer from the www.realclearpolitics.com website.

Sir Robert Worcester is the Founder of MORI