Bouncing Back
Brown's challenge will be to maintain support in the polls once the 'bounce' wears off
Recent polls have shown that Gordon Brown, like most new political leaders, has received a notable 'bounce' since he became prime minister on June 27. Is this evidence of Brown's ability to consolidate Labour support across the board? Or is it simply that all PMs faced with challenges in the early weeks of their leadership enjoy high ratings, and that Brown is no different?
The frustrating, and honest, answer is that it is too early to say. The data certainly does suggest that people are feeling more positive about Labour now than they were when Blair was leading the party — Ipsos's most recent polling (August 8-9) gives Labour a five-point lead and other agencies have put the lead even higher. Our poll in August for the Sun also suggests that Brown outstrips the other party leaders in terms of his personal leadership qualities, such as being good in a crisis and understanding Britain's problems. These high personal ratings, in combination with nearly two months of a strong lead in the polls, suggest that Labour is performing very well of late, especially compared to the last 12 months of Tony Blair's leadership.
However, it is important to keep in mind that individuals' assessments of their voting behaviour are highly changeable and subject to persuasion; especially among the 20% of us who are 'floating voters'. Brown has been enjoying a good deal of positive media and commentary, compared to the relentlessly negative coverage of Blair. The fact that Blair was in such disfavour when he stepped down means that it is difficult to assess whether the current bounce is a 'Brown bounce' or a 'no-more-Blair' bounce.
As Labour's lead (and Brown's personal ratings) remain high, the evidence swings towards a true 'Brown bounce', but it is worth noting that Brown's approval ratings so far are actually no higher than any other new prime minister, and follow the exact trajectory that John Major's did when he took over leadership of the Tories following Margaret Thatcher's resignation.
One feature of both Blair's and Major's premierships is the fact that both faced crises soon after entering office: Major had the first Gulf War, and Blair had Diana's death. Both men rose to the occasion and received boosts in their ratings for the way they handled themselves.
Brown has faced similar hurdles, namely the attempted terrorist attacks in London and Glasgow, and the foot and mouth outbreak. Our data shows that he is seen to be performing very well on the latter: 72% of the public are satisfied with the way he is handling the outbreak, and the voting data immediately following the attempted terrorist attacks suggest he is performing well on the former too. So his lead in the polls is certainly not surprising.
But where are these additional professed votes coming from? The Tories' voting intention figures are no worse than they were at the last election, so it doesn't seem that Brown is attracting Conservatives to his cause. Rather, it appears that floating Liberal Democrat and other minor party supporters, who distanced themselves from Blair in 2005, are coming back into the fold. Brown has managed, so far, to distance himself from the loss of trust that occurred with the government's decision to invade Iraq, and his communications on the issue, as well as his meeting with Bush, have met more with voters' approval compared to Blair.
Brown's experience, apparent success at crisis management and the fact that he is seen as trustworthy by more than half (54%) of the electorate are all factors that are likely to be contributing to his lead in the polls. However, it would be remiss to overlook the performance of David Cameron, and how this fits into the picture. Additional evidence that Labour's lead in the polls is not at the expense of Conservative voters comes with the fact that Cameron's personal ratings are relatively unchanged since Brown came into power. However, where the Tory leader has come up short is that, after a comfortable lead in the polls for at least 11 months (a large window in which to push forward their agenda), he already finds himself playing catch-up to Brown's highly proactive policy agenda.
Brown's firm command of the story of the day, in addition to his (surprisingly?) well-organised takeover of office, seems to have caught the Tories off guard. Perhaps they were expecting Blair's reputation to tarnish Brown more than it has. For the moment at least, it appears the new Labour leader was underestimated. His challenge now will be to maintain this level of support as and when the 'bounce' wears off.
