Ipsos response to the 2024 election results

We are pleased that Ipsos polling throughout the campaign (and before it started), told many of the key points necessary to understand the direction the election was taking. Our final poll predicted a large Labour majority, the collapse of the Conservative vote, and the vote share of Reform.  We are also very happy with the performance of the exit poll, which once again forecast most of the seat shares fairly accurately. 

Our final poll estimates for most parties were within the margin of error (our average error was around 2.3ppts), although we would have liked for it to be more accurate, and it did underestimate the final Conservative share.  This was a volatile election with many unique factors, but when all the data is in, we will be doing a full review of our methodology, as we do after every election, to learn the lessons for the future.  We will also be re-interviewing many of the survey participants who we talked to during the election campaign over the coming days.  This process of review is a continual exercise for us and we are constantly testing our methodologies to ensure that our polling is as accurate as possible (for example, we will look at how we treat refusals to the voting question).  We will also continue to help explain the strengths and limitations of research, to help people interpret them correctly while being mindful of the uncertainties that are inherent within them.

We continue to believe in the value of independent, objective and rigorous research to gaining a full understanding of the complete picture of public opinion on politics, society and business.