Labour’s ratings fall in Scotland while Reform UK continues to rise

Ahead of Labour’s UK party conference, Ipsos’ Scottish Political Pulse survey finds that:

• Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s favourability ratings in Scotland are the lowest Ipsos has measured for either politician since this polling series began in October 2022.
• The Prime Minister is now a little less popular than Donald Trump in Scotland – while 20% of Scots have a favourable opinion of Trump, 16% have a favourable view of Starmer.
• Nigel Farage and his party are gaining ground in Scotland, with one in four Scots viewing Farage and Reform UK favourably – an upward swing of +6 for Farage and +4 for Reform UK since February.
• Ratings of the Scottish Government’s performance on public services, although negative, have improved slightly compared with February – but the public continue to lack confidence in the SNP’s management of Scotland’s economy.

Leader ratings

Over six in ten Scots have an unfavourable view of Prime Minister Starmer, with 16% viewing him favourably and 63% viewing him unfavourably - a ‘net’ favourability rating of -47. This is the lowest rating Ipsos has recorded for him since this polling series began three years ago. It is also the lowest net rating of any politician asked about in the poll, including US President Donald Trump, whose net rating stands at -46 – with 20% of Scots viewing him favourably and 66% unfavourably.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s net rating is also down slightly at -26 (18% favourable, 44% unfavourable) – the lowest rating Ipsos has yet recorded for him. 

In contrast, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s ratings have risen sharply in recent months, with his net favourability in Scotland standing at -31 (25% favourable, 56% unfavourable), a swing of +6 since February. 

No politician receives a positive net rating from the Scottish public. However, First Minister John Swinney is the highest-rated politician asked about in this poll, with net favourability of -10 (31% favourable, 41% unfavourable).

Party ratings

Looking at the political parties’ fortunes, the Scottish National Party’s ratings are holding up, with a third of Scots (34%) favourable towards the party and 45% unfavourable (net rating -11, unchanged since February 2025). In contrast, Scottish Labour’s ratings are the worst Ipsos has recorded for them since this polling series began three years ago, with 20% favourable and 48% unfavourable (net -28). 
The only party to see a marked rise in its ratings since February is Reform UK, with 26% favourable and 55% unfavourable towards the party (net rating -29, a swing of +4 since February). The Scottish Conservatives’ ratings remain low at net -41 (16% unfavourable, 57% unfavourable). 
On the left, there looks to be some potential for a new political party founded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana to challenge other left-of-centre parties, with 20% of Scots favourable towards Corbyn, 13% favourable towards Sultana and 16% favourable towards the new party.  

Economy 

Scots remain gloomy about the state of the economy, with seven in ten (70%) describing the current state of Scotland’s economy as poor, compared to 22% who describe it as good. Half (51%) think the Scottish Government has done a bad job of managing Scotland’s economy since the last Scottish Parliament elections took place in 2021, the worst rating recorded by Ipsos since this poll series began in October 2022. 
The public are also more pessimistic about the prospects for improvement than they were a year ago: 51% expect that Scotland’s economy will get worse over the next 12 months and 12% expect it to improve, a swing of -4 compared with September 2024. 
Over twice as many Scots lack confidence in the SNP’s long-term economic plan for Scotland as feel confident about it (63% say they are not confident, 28% confident). However, the public are even less convinced that the Labour Party has a good long-term economic plan for the UK - just 17% express confidence in Labour’s economic plan, while three in four (75%) say they are not confident.

Scottish Government performance

While the Scottish public remain broadly negative in their assessments of the SNP’s record in government, views of the Scottish Government’s performance on public services have improved a little compared with when Ipsos last asked this question in February. 
One in five Scots (21%) say the Scottish Government has done a good job of improving the NHS in Scotland since the 2021 Holyrood elections, a rise of three points since February – although more than half (54%) think that the government is doing a bad job on the NHS. Similarly, 22% say the Scottish Government has done a good job of improving Scotland’s education system, up four points since February – although 46% think the government is doing a bad job on education.

Although Scots’ views of the current Scottish Government’s record are far from positive, fewer than one in five think a Labour Scottish Government would do a better job of handling each of these policy areas – ranging from 19% who think Labour would do a better job on the NHS and education, down to 13% who think Labour would do better at tackling the climate crisis. The public are most likely to think that a Labour Scottish Government would make no difference – between 35% and 43% of the public give this view across policy areas. 

Seven in 10 Scots (70%) agree that Scotland needs a fresh team of leaders, while just under three in 10 (29%) agree that the current SNP Scottish Government deserves to be re-elected. However, just 19% think that the Scottish Labour Party is ready to form the next Scottish Government – a fall of 15 percentage points compared with March 2024 when Ipsos asked this question previously.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos Scotland, commented: 

These results make grim reading for Labour as the party’s annual conference in Liverpool approaches, with ratings for the Prime Minister, Scottish Labour leader and his party the worst Ipsos has recently recorded. Meanwhile Nigel Farage and Reform UK are on the rise in Scotland, potentially benefiting from the Scottish public’s desire for change - a majority say that Scotland needs a fresh team of leaders. Yet despite this apparent appetite for change, and public criticism of the Scottish Government’s record on key policy areas, John Swinney remains the highest rated politician in our survey and the SNP the highest rated party eight months out from the next Holyrood elections.

Notes to Editor:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,050 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were conducted online between 12th-22nd September 2025.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the offline population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories.