Pulse Check - October 2025
Checking the pulse of the nation
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Farage leads Starmer in who Britons would prefer as PM
Nigel Farage (33%) has a slight lead over Keir Starmer (30%) for the first time in a head-to-head series on who Britons would prefer as PM. Britons are also now slightly more likely to say they would prefer Reform UK led by Nigel Farage to win the next UK General Election (39%) than the Labour party led by Keir Starmer (36%).
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Immigration remains biggest issue facing Britain
Immigration continues to be seen as the biggest issue facing the country with 47% of Britons mentioning it as an issue. The economy and the NHS remain in the top three issues, mentioned by 33% and 24% respectively.
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Public disapproval of Prince Andrew
Eight in ten (82%) Britons have an unfavourable opinion of Prince Andrew and 88% think it was definitely or probably the right decision for Prince Andrew to no longer use his official titles.
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All eyes on the budget as Labour looks to fight back
The post party conference season has been a difficult period for Labour, with a historic defeat in Wales, a growing sense of Green party momentum and a difficult budget ahead. Public opinion is not looking kindly on Keir Starmer and his team at the moment.
Caerphilly by-election
Last week, we saw a Plaid Cymru victory in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election. Labour had held the Senedd seat since its creation, and the corresponding Westminster seat for more than a century. Reform UK followed in second, just 11 points behind Plaid Cymru, and Labour were third with 11% of the vote. Although Reform did not win, the party’s 34-point rise in vote share marks a significant breakthrough and suggests the party poses a significant threat to Labour in Wales.
The result aligns with broader national polling trends. For the first time in our Ipsos Political Pulse series, Nigel Farage (33%) now leads Keir Starmer (30%) on who Britons would prefer as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, 39% of respondents say they would prefer a Reform UK government under Farage, compared with 36% preferring Labour under Starmer. Immigration continues to be the most important issue to the public – with 47% citing it as a key concern – and Reform are the most trusted party on the subject. They also lead other parties on having a “good plan for changing Britain”.
Yet Caerphilly may offer a word of warning for Reform too. Turnout was high and there was significant evidence of anti-Reform tactical voting at play to keep the party from winning the seat. Similar sentiment nationwide could yet deny the party power when the next General Election comes around – if Labour can reverse its current poor polling position more generally.
Green Party momentum
Another headache for Labour is the apparent growing momentum for Zack Polanski and the Greens. The Green party have seen a surge in membership, with the party reporting record breaking numbers* since Zack Polanski took over as leader in September.
Our Ipsos Political Pulse data shows three in ten Britons are considering voting for the party, including almost half of 2024 Labour voters. Some four in ten 2024 Labour voters think the party has a good long-term plan for changing Britain generally. Not all of this group will vote Green – and some are considering the Lib Dems too – but the sight of younger, progressive minded voters shopping around provides another headache for Labour strategists.
The Budget test
Attention now shifts to the November Budget, where Labour faces the twin test of projecting fiscal credibility alongside a compelling political offer. The party has pledged not to raise taxes on working people, but tax rises of some kind appear inevitable.
If the government does seek new revenue, 46% of Britons say they would most prefer to increase income tax on earnings above £125,000. If that option were unavailable, voters still prioritise other revenue raising measures over broadbrush taxes like basic rate of income tax, VAT or council tax: 37% would prefer higher tobacco and alcohol duties and 30% raising tax on earnings between £50,000 and £125,000.
There is also significant support for a wealth tax (64%), defined as 1% annually on assets above £10 million, and 2% on assets above £1 billion. Around half (47%) think such a tax would increase the amount of money the government could spend on public services, although 36% worry it would reduce how attractive the UK is to businesses and entrepreneurs.
Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics, said:
As the budget approaches, Labour faces challenges on many fronts. They need to project fiscal credibility in a turbulent global financial environment, whilst also presenting a compelling political offer to a public unsure of what they stand for. All whilst trailing Reform UK in the polls and facing a challenge on the left from the Greens. That said, budgets do provide governments with the opportunity to set the political agenda. Rachel Reeves will hope she can do so in Labour’s favour.
Reference: *https://greenparty.org.uk/2025/10/19/green-party-membership-surges-past-conservatives-making-the-greens-third-largest-political-party-in-the-uk/
