Reform's Ipsos record 9-point lead over Labour, as public satisfaction with government nears lowest point recorded under a modern Labour administration

Ipsos’ newly relaunched Political Monitor shows Reform UK on a 34% vote share, the highest Ipsos has ever recorded for them, and nine points ahead of the Labour Party. Just under a year since the 2024 general election, Ipsos in the UK’s new findings show how dramatically the political landscape has changed:

• Labour’s 25% voting intention is the lowest share Ipsos has recorded for Labour since October 2019.
• The Conservatives’ 15% is the lowest share Ipsos has ever recorded.
• Keir Starmer and the government’s satisfaction ratings have fallen significantly since last year, with around three in four (73% and 76% respectively) now dissatisfied.

This is Ipsos’ first published voting intention figure since the general election, coinciding with just under a year of Starmer’s government (fieldwork 29 May-4 June 2025 just before the Spending Review). After a comprehensive internal review, these new figures are collected via Ipsos UK’s online KnowledgePanel, based on “gold standard” random probability sampling, where potential participants are recruited offline. Further information on Ipsos’ methodology changes is below.

Voting intention

• Reform UK 34%, Labour 25%, Conservatives 15%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Green Party 9%, Others 6%.
• Reform UK holds a lead of + 9 points over Labour.
• Labour’s vote share of 25% is the lowest Ipsos has recorded since October 2019.
• The Conservatives’ 15% share is the lowest Ipsos has ever recorded, starting from 1976
• Reform UK is currently holding on to nearly all of their 2024 voters (95%).
• Both Conservatives and Labour are only retaining about half of their 2024 voters (48% and 54% respectively).
• The challenge posed by Reform UK to the Conservative Party is clear – over one in three of their 2024 voters (37%) have since switched to Reform UK. Labour is losing support to both Reform UK (12% of their 2024 vote) and the Liberal Democrats and Greens (8% and 5% respectively).
• Reform UK is also relatively successful with 2024 non-voters, with one in four non-voters (27%) saying they would now vote Reform UK.
• Reform UK receive their strongest support from those aged 50+ (40%), social classes C2DE (53%), and non-graduates (42%).  Labour performs best among 30-49 year olds (33%), those in social class AB (35%), graduates (36%), those in full-time work (33%), and mortgage holders (32%).

Satisfaction ratings

• Approaching the first anniversary of the Labour government, only one in six (16%) are satisfied with the way the government is running the country, with three quarters dissatisfied (76%), a net rating of -60 points. This compares with a net rating of -70 in December last year, and nearly matches the lowest figure recorded under the New Labour government of -62 in June 2009 under Gordon Brown (although not as low as the worst scores recorded by Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, or John Major).
• Only a third (32%) of 2024 Labour voters are satisfied with the government, with two-thirds (59%) dissatisfied.
• Satisfaction with Keir Starmer is also low, 73% saying they are dissatisfied with the way he is doing his job as Prime Minister, and 19% satisfied (net satisfaction of -54, compared with -34 in December). Starmer’s satisfaction ratings after 11 months are similar to the worst ever ratings obtained by Thatcher (-56 in March 1990), and not far from the lows seen by Sunak (-59 in April 2024), and Major (-59 in August 1994).
• Two in five (39%) of 2024 Labour voters are satisfied with Keir Starmer, with 56% dissatisfied. Current Labour supporters are more positive, though, with 59% satisfied and 33% dissatisfied.
• With a third (34%) satisfied, Nigel Farage has the highest level of satisfaction among main party leaders, though still negative net satisfaction overall (-15, with 49% dissatisfied). Reform UK’s leader also does much better among his current party supporters than other leaders do among their base, with 90% of Reform supporters satisfied.
• Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch has a net satisfaction rating of -49, with three in five (60%) dissatisfied and only one in nine (11%) satisfied. Just three in ten (29%) of 2024 Conservative voters are satisfied with Kemi Badenoch, 47% dissatisfied, while current Conservative supporters are split on 36% satisfied and 38% dissatisfied.
• Just under a quarter (23%) are satisfied with Ed Davey, with 38% dissatisfied (net satisfaction -15), though two in five (40%) have no view on the LibDem leader.*

*Note because of the change in methodology, at this stage we are not comparing trend data on views for leaders of the opposition parties, though our tests indicate we are able to do so for views of the government and Prime Minister.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:

The last year has indeed been a long time in politics, with our first voting intention since the election showing just how much the political landscape has transformed since then. Reform UK has continued to build on its success, helped by high levels of enthusiasm among its own support and among working class voters in particular, and taking votes from both Labour and especially the Conservatives, who show little sign of recovery. The disappointment with Labour is clear, even among those who voted for the party in 2024.  We know from Ipsos research how difficult it has been to shift entrenched public pessimism over the cost of living, immigration, and the state of public services, and so far, Britons do not think Labour is delivering the tangible change they were hoping for in 2024. This is reflected in satisfaction ratings for the government and Prime Minister that - while not quite the worst Ipsos has ever seen - are well below the average we usually see coming up to a one year anniversary. Indeed, they look remarkably similar to the poor ratings received by Gordon Brown in 2008 after the financial crash. Labour will be hoping that the Spending Review will start to switch the narrative to a more positive one of renewal, but the challenge they face is significant. This research also marks a new methodological approach for Ipsos, using our online KnowledgePanel based on gold-standard random probability sampling, and other changes we have made since the general election. As with any individual survey it is important to remember that margins of error apply, and results should be interpreted in the round along with other sources of data. As always, Ipsos will continue to review this new approach, and may make further refinements in the future if necessary.

Technical note: 

• Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,180 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between 30 May – 4 June 2025. Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 2,205 adults aged 18+ who are eligible to vote in Britain were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by nation, age, qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election (as collected immediately after the election). The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:
  • Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
  • Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Government Office region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade (office coded), number of cars in household, constituency type, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2021/22 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.
• A two-part voting intention question is used with prompting on main parties and a follow-up “squeeze” question of those who are undecided or refuse the first question. Prompted parties are: Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales. A turnout filter is used based on two questions: current stated likelihood to vote (at least 9 out of 10 certain to vote) and previous voting behaviour (if they say they “always” or “usually” vote in general elections or that “it depends”).
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
• This is a new methodology compared to previous Ipsos Political Monitors. It involves a new form of data collection (online random probability panel instead of quota telephone survey) that allows us to stratify the initial sample by 2024 past vote as recorded at the time, an updated voting intention question (now prompting for Reform UK), and an updated weighting scheme (that now includes digital as well as print readership in our newspaper weighting, that has updated various sources such as the measure we use for public sector workers, and a new weight based on type of constituency (marginal/non-marginal), though most of the weight categories used remain the same).  This is based on our learnings during and since the 2024 General Election. This means that comparisons with previous waves need to be made with caution. In particular, at this stage we are not making direct comparisons with previous satisfaction ratings for opposition party leaders (though our tests suggest that trend comparisons can be made for ratings of the government and Prime Minister). As always, we continually review our methods and may make further changes to our methodology in the future.