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State Of the Nation
In February, the single most important issue in the minds of nearly a quarter (23%) of the British nation was immigration and asylum seekers, nearly double the percentage who expressed concern about either the state of the nation's health care (13%) or Iraq, terrorism and the nation's defence (13%).
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The Observer Election Research - Poll 1
MORI's first election special research for the Observer and Sunday Mirror demonstrates the importance that turnout could have in the general election on 5th May. In this research, conducted on 7-9 April, 61% of the electorate say they are absolutely certain to vote — this is the highest figure measured by MORI since this question was first regularly asked in November 2002. Crucially, during this time, many more Labour supporters told us they were certain to vote, compared with the weekend before, which means that at present Labour have a comfortable lead over the Conservatives.
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A Shock To The System
MORI's first poll of the General Election, published in the Financial Times on the day the election was called from fieldwork the previous weekend caused a shock to the system, as there was a warning in it for all three major political parties. For the record, Populus in the Times had Conservatives at 35%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems at 19% and others at 9%. NOP in the Independent had Conservatives at 33%, Labour at 36%, Lib Dems at 21% and others at 10%. ICM in the Guardian had Conservatives at 34%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems at 21% and others at 8%.
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Financial Times Election Research - Poll 1
MORI's latest election poll, conducted over the weekend exclusively for The Financial Times, reveals that among 55% of the electorate who say they are absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party now have a five point lead over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats on 21%.
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Electoral Volatility
Electoral volatility and low turnout are plaguing politicians, pundits and pollsters as the 'real' election is about to begin. With voting day just a month from Thursday, reports of huge differences between one poll and another based on the 'gap' or 'lead' between Labour and the Conservatives disguises small changes between one poll's findings and another. But comparing the same organisation's polls over time, it is clear that public opinion is moving towards the Conservatives.