Worcester's Weblog

MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.

Four polls kick off the general election today, April 5 with the election a month hence on May 5, as we forecast in October 2001 in our book, 'Explaining Labour's Second Landslide' (Worcester and Mortimore -- Politico's, 2001, p.321).

The last paragraph on the page, in the text, said "Watch for the third book in the series, to be published in the Autumn of 2005. Its' title? Explaining Labour's Third Landslide".

But on second thoughts ... four polls, three of which, remarkably, show a swing of around 2.5 per cent from Labour to the Tories from their previous poll.

ICM in the Guardian now has the Conservatives on 34 per cent (+2), Labour at 37 per cent (-3), the Liberal Democrats at 21 per cent (+1) and others on eight per cent (0).

NOP in the Independent has the Conservatives on 33 per cent (-1), Labour at 36 per cent (-3), the Lib Dems at 21 per cent (+2) and others on 10 per cent (+2).

MORI in the Financial Times has it at Conservatives 39 per cent (+2), Labour 34 per cent (-3), Lib Dems 21 per cent (+1), and others six per cent (0).

And Populus in the Times has the Conservatives on 35 per cent (+3), Labour on 37 per cent (-2), the Lib Dems on 19 per cent (-1) and others on nine per cent (0).

Still, projecting these using the MORI 'Swingo' model, which has proved accurate in past elections and has been updated to take account of changes since 2001, including the reduction in Scottish seats, gives Labour a third term.

With ICM it projects a Labour majority of 102, with NOP a Labour majority of 96, with Populus a Labour majority also of just over 100.

But with MORI it projects a hung parliament, with Labour having 17 seats more than the Conservatives, but still in power with the help of the Liberal Democrats and nationalists.

The MORI poll in the FT finds that on all five 'preference measures' Labour has leads over the Tories, but in every case, they are down substantially from 2001.

On who would make the most capable prime minister, Tony Blair leads Michael Howard by 14 points, but that's down from his 25 point lead over William Hague in 2001.

On having the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems, Labour's lead is +17 (down 17); on having the best policies for the country, +5 (down 20); on being clear and united +10 (down 21 points); on looking after the interests of people like you +3 (down 18).

Only on being positioned to run an effective campaign does Labour have a huge lead of 29 points, not a question MORI has asked before.

MORI's figures are taken from those who say on a scale of one to 10 to mark their certainty of voting, with 10 meaning you would be absolutely certain to vote. Overall, that is in this poll 55 per cent of the electorate, down four percentage points from 2001's 59 per cent and my best guess of what the turnout will be at this election as of today.

For six months I've been saying that my guess is that the turnout will be under 2001, around 55 to 56 per cent, and I see little reason to change so far, although it's fair to say that if the swing to the Tories continues we'll see the turnout grow, as reluctant Labour voters realise that their intention to punish Tony Blair for various demeanours from Iraq to failure to deliver on his promises (as they see it) by abstaining will jeopardise Labour's chance of a third term.