SNP remain ahead but Reform support in Scotland rises, while Labour support slumps

Voting intention

The SNP maintains its lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, on 35% of the constituency vote share – although this is significantly weaker than the 47.7% the party achieved at the last Holyrood election in 2021. Reform UK’s share of the vote has risen, with 18% of Scottish voters planning to use their constituency vote for a Reform candidate, up 4 points since June. In contrast, Scottish Labour’s vote share has fallen further, to 16% – down 7 points since June.  

On regional list voting intention, the SNP again leads the pack on 28%. Scottish Labour is second on 18%, down 4 points since June, closely followed by the Scottish Greens and Reform UK (each 17%). 

Our headline estimate of Holyrood constituency voting intention is: 

• SNP: 35% (+1 point compared with Ipsos’ previous poll taken 12-18 June)
• Reform UK: 18% (+4 points)
• Labour: 16% (-7)
• Conservatives: 11% (+1)
• Liberal Democrats: 9% (no change)
• Scottish Green Party: 9% (no change)
• Other: 2% (+1)

Our headline estimate of Holyrood regional list voting intention is: 

• SNP: 28% (+2 points)
• Labour: 18% (-4)
• Scottish Green Party: 17% (+2)
• Reform UK: 17% (+1)
• Conservatives: 12% (+2)
• Liberal Democrats: 7% (-1)
• Alba Party: 1% (-1)
• Other: 1% (-2) 

The SNP remain out in front on General Election voting intention, on 33% - 3 points higher than the 30% share of the vote they achieved at the 2024 General Election. Reform UK are in second place on 20%, up 4 points since Ipsos’ June poll and 13 points higher than the 7% share of the vote they achieved in 2024. Meanwhile, Labour’s vote share has dropped to 17%, a fall of 5 points since June and less than half of the party’s 35% General Election vote share.

The SNP have been broadly successful in holding onto their 2024 General Election support, with 78% of those who voted SNP at the General Election still planning to vote for the party now. In contrast, Labour have only managed to retain 38% of their 2024 voters. Labour are losing voters particularly to Reform UK (22% of 2024 Labour voters say they will vote for Reform UK), but also to the SNP (10%), the Conservatives (6%), and the Liberal Democrats (6%).

Our headline estimate of General Election voting intention is: 

• SNP: 33% (+2)
• Reform UK: 20% (+4)
• Labour: 17% (-5)
• Conservatives: 11% (+1)
• Scottish Green Party: 11% (+1)
• Liberal Democrats: 8% (-1)
• Other: 1% (unchanged)

Key issues for voters

The top issue that the Scottish public say will be very important to how they vote next May is healthcare/the NHS (57%). This is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living (41%), immigration (30%), the economy (25%) and social care, including for older and disabled people (25%).

Immigration has become an increasingly salient issue for the Scottish public in recent months – in Ipsos’ previous poll in June, immigration did not appear in the public’s top 10 most important issues facing Scotland. It is a particular concern for Reform UK supporters, 80% of whom mention immigration as a very important issue in helping them decide how to vote, and to a lesser extent for Conservative supporters (38%). To set this in context, Ipsos’ polling during the Scottish Parliament election campaigns in April 2021 found that just 1% of likely voters mentioned asylum and immigration as an issue that would be very important in helping them decide which party to vote for.

When asked which party they trust most to handle these key issues:

• The SNP is seen as the most competent party to manage the NHS in Scotland, with 28% of the public selecting them as the party they trust most on this issue – followed by 22% who trust none of the parties on the NHS, and 13% who trust Scottish Labour most.
• The SNP is also the most trusted party to tackle the cost of living crisis (24%), although a quarter (25%) of the public trust none of the parties to do this – and the most trusted party to grow Scotland’s economy (26%).
• 22% of the public trust Reform UK most to have the right stance on immigration, while 21% trust the SNP most on this issue. Men and older voters aged 55 and over are particularly likely to trust Reform UK on immigration (30% and 29% respectively).
   

In the wake of the UK Budget (poll fieldwork was conducted post-Budget), the Scottish public show a preference for increasing spending on public services, even if it means higher taxes, rather than cutting taxes. Half (51%) say they would be more likely to vote for a political party that increased spending on public services, even if it meant that individuals personally pay more in taxes. Just 26% say they would be more likely to vote for a party that cut the amount of taxes that individuals pay personally, even if it meant spending less on public services. 

Views of political leaders

None of the party leaders asked about in the poll is rated positively overall by the public. First Minister John Swinney is the least poorly rated, with 35% of the public saying they are satisfied with his performance and 49% that they are dissatisfied – a ‘net’ satisfaction rating of -14. Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar’s approval ratings have fallen since June, with 23% of the public satisfied with him and 51% dissatisfied - a net satisfaction rating of -28. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings have fallen again this wave, with more than three quarters of the Scottish public (77%) dissatisfied with him and just 14% satisfied – giving a net satisfaction rating of -63, the lowest Ipsos has yet measured for him in Scotland. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have also fallen, due to a rise in dissatisfaction with his performance, from 54% dissatisfied in June to 61% now.

Views on Scottish independence

The Scottish public remain divided on the constitutional question, with 52% of those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum saying they would vote Yes and 48% that they would vote No. 

The prospect of a Reform UK government at Westminster could drive up support for Scottish independence further. Among those who currently say they would vote No in an immediate referendum, 16% think that if Reform UK was elected to government at the next General Election, this would make them more likely to vote Yes – although most (61%) say it would make no difference. In contrast, just 4% of current No voters think that if the Conservative Party was elected at the next General Election this would make them more likely to vote Yes, while 70% say that it would make no difference. Over half (55%) of currently undecided voters say that a Reform UK government at Westminster would make them more likely to vote Yes – compared with 4% who say this would be more likely to make them vote No and 25% who say it would make no difference.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 

Five months out from the next Holyrood elections, these new results show the SNP out in front and holding onto their core voters more successfully than other parties – although with a lower share of the vote than the party achieved at the last Scottish Parliament elections. Reform UK’s vote share in Scotland has continued to improve, although there has been a rise in public dissatisfaction with Nigel Farage’s performance as party leader. Meanwhile Scottish Labour are experiencing continued decline in their vote share, likely to relate to the UK Labour Government’s unpopularity. One dramatic shift in recent months has been the increased importance of immigration to Scotland’s voters. This issue looks set to feature in the Holyrood election campaigns, and with one in five saying Reform UK is the party they trust most on immigration, the party’s messaging on this issue is clearly resonating with a significant minority of Scots.

Technical note: 

• Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,061 adults aged 16+ across Scotland, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected online between 27th November and 3rd December 2025.
• Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 1,920 panellists aged 16+ in Scotland were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election (as collected immediately after the election). The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:
  • Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
  • Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Scottish Parliament region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade, area deprivation, number of cars in household, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2022 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories.