Soft Labour Vote? Not So, At Least Not Yet
The first poll taken entirely after the call of the election shows a widening of the lead for Labour, and on every measure, Labour gaining even further ground on the Conservatives.
This MORI poll for the Times contrasts with the Gallup poll in the Telegraph, which shows a narrowing, taken over the previous week.
The MORI poll gives Labour 54% (up 4 from April), the Tories 30% (no change) and the Liberal Democrats 13% (no change), the biggest Labour share MORI has recorded this year. By contrast, Gallup found Labour on 49% (down 4), the Tories on 32% (up 5), and the Lib Dems the same as MORI, 13% (down 2) compared to April 13th fieldwork.
The MORI interviews were entirely taken on May 8, after the announcement, among 1,046 electors 18+ in 75 sampling points across Great Britain. The interviews were done face-to-face, not on the telephone. The Market Research Society's review following the 1992 General Election showed that there was no statistical difference between one-day polls and polls taken over a longer time period.
Even more striking in the MORI findings is that on every measure, strength of support, certainty of voting, mind made up, and best prime minister, Labour is stronger than the Tories. Among all electors, Labour strengthened its support from the last poll for the Times, up four (the Labour Party share had been stuck on 50% for four months, January, February, March, and April), to register a lead over the Tories of 24 points.
Among those 46% who say they are "certain to vote", Labour's lead widens to 27%. Another 19% say they are "very likely" to vote, for a combined 65%, indicating a substantially lower turnout on June 7 than in 1997.
When asked how strongly they supported their party, 18% of the 30% who said they intended to vote Tory said they supported their party "strongly", while among those 54% naming Labour, 24% said they strongly supported their party.
Two thirds, 66%, of Tories said their mind was made up to vote for the Conservatives, while 69% of Labour supporters said they wouldn't change their mind before the vote.
It isn't that these figures are massive; it is because they are counter-intuitive. For four years I have thought that the Labour vote, at 50% (and more) must be softer, come the election, than the Conservative's 30%. Not so, at least not yet.
The weakness of William Hague's position is marked by the fact that when asked 'who do you think would make the most capable PM', only 13% said William Hague; even among the 30% who intend to vote Conservatives, only 43% say Hague would make the best PM.
Gallup's most interesting finding in my view is that when asked which party "more closely represents their own view on Europe", 45% say the Labour Party and 40% to Tories. That may make the Conservative strategists think twice about their plans to concentrate on the Europe issue in this election.
