Stirring Up Apathy

This is the most boring election in this century/decade/since the war/lately/whatever. How many elections is it that I've been hearing that? Nine is it? Every election news editors send some tyro journo out to stir up apathy, and prove once again that this is the most boring election since the year dot.

Since only about one in six of us are 'very' interested in politics, and about one in five wish it had never been invented, it's easy to take tape recorder in hand and go out on the high street and highjack some feckless youth and old dear to moan about how bored he and she is with the election...already...and it's just begun.

So who are the apathetic? I've done an analysis of the findings of MORI's latest poll, published yesterday in the Sunday Telegraph. We asked, as we always do, the 'standard' voting intention question, which includes and accepts the answers 'would not vote', 'undecided' and 'refused'. After a first go at it, our interviewer records the answer to the question 'How do you intend to vote on June 7th?', and asks those who are the first question say either that they are undecided or refuse, 'Which party are you leaning toward?' The residuals are loosely described as the 'don't knows'.

WILL NOT VOTERS: About seven percent of the electorate says outright that they don't intend to vote. A number of reasons account for their reluctance: 'not interested', 'don't know enough about it', 'none of them are worth voting for', and my favourite, a bumper strip I saw once in America - 'Don't vote, it only encourages them'. In this country they tend more to be men (index of 1.2 against women's 0.8, in other words men are 20% more likely to be in this group that one would expect from their proportion of the electorate); younger, under 35 (1.34 of the 18-24s, 1.61 25-34s); C1s (1.2) andC2s (1.61), and those living in London (1.47).

UNDECIDEDS: Some 13% even after probing still say they are undecided at this stage of the election, and they are slightly more likely to be women (1.07), middle-aged (1.06), C2s (1.24), and, again, Londoners (1.07). When asked 'Why' they are undecided, nearly half say they don't feel at this point they know enough, either about the election and what the parties stand for, or the candidates (45%), or they are waiting to see the manifestos or candidates or what happens during the election (25%), and only about on e in ten are the sceptics, saying either that they are all the same or that they don't trust them (10%), plus the one in ten who say they are just not interested enough to bother (9%).

REFUSALS: And then those 'shy Tories', some 6%, much higher this time round than ever before, usually about 2/3%, but usually higher on the telephone than in face-to-face surveys. As we've known for decades, they tend to be more likely to be women (1.06), 55+ (1.33), C2s (1.12), living in the Midlands (1.20), and much more likely to be among the tine (5%) who think that the Conservatives are going to win (1.46), no matter what the opinion polls show. From other surveys, they are also more likely to be readers of the Mail, the Telegraph, and the Sunday Express. Yes, we think they are more likely to vote Tory than others who cheerfully tell us what they intend to do come the election. These good folks tend to say that their vote is private/confidential (39%), 'it's my business' (21%), 'I would rather not say (19%) or 'I never tell anyone/it's private' (17%).

There's good news though in the polls from this weekend, in that with the ignition of the election last week, the abnormally low turnout indicators have brightened up somewhat, and the gloomy prognostications I was making last week about a dismal turnout, maybe 65%, now look less dire, and it may be that closer to 70% may be realised on the day.

SINNER: Sir Robert Worcester, for going 'goggle eyed' about the ICM poll in the Observer which I misread as ABs, the one in five of the electorate, intending to vote Labour by three to one, 59% to 17%. Peter Kellner kindly pointed out to me that I had misread his article, and that the analysis was based on the 'best Prime Minister' question, NOT voting intention. In their poll, Blair was thought to be the 'best Prime Minister' by 59% to William Hague's 17%. In our poll for the Sunday Telegraph, we found 50% of intending conservative voters thought Tony. Blair the best PM, 22% thought William Hague, and 10% Charles Kennedy. Suitably chastened, I'll try to do better in the future. Promise!

24 days and counting.