There Will Be Blood On The Carpet

The electorate seem to be settling into a resolve to return Labour to power but with a somewhat reduced majority, according to a face-to-face MORI poll carried out exclusively for the Evening Standard over the last few days.

Based on the 58 per cent of the survey of the 1,973 electors in-home puts Labour on 39 per cent, the Conservatives 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 21 per cent and "others" on 5 per cent. This assumes only those who say now they are "absolutely certain to vote" carry out their intention on polling day. On the same basis, just over half of Londoners say they are absolutely certain to vote and at this time there are 14 per cent more who say they would vote Labour 43 per cent (47 per cent in 2001) than Tory 29 per cent (30 per cent), 22 per cent say they would vote for the Liberal Democrats (17 per cent).

This contrasts with an eight point Tory lead in the rest of the South East, Labour 30 per cent (32 per cent), Conservative 38 per cent (43 per cent) and Liberal Democrats 24 per cent (21 per cent).

Assuming a national uniform swing across the country, Labour would be returned with a majority of c. 110 down from 167 in 2001, losing around 30 seats with the Liberal Democrats picking up only a few, mostly at the expense of the Conservatives. (See chart) But there is still much to play for. A third of those who name a party say they may change their mind between now and May 5th.

Four in ten (41 per cent) of Liberal Democrats say they may change their mind, nearly a third of Labour intending voters (31 per cent) and a quarter of Conservative supporters have not definitely decided to vote for their party, but admit there is at least some chance they may change their mind during the campaign. Certainty of voting is based on the question "How likely would you be to vote in an immediate general election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 means you would be absolutely certain not to vote". These voting intention figures, based on only those absolutely certain (58 per cent) give a four point lead to Labour. If those answer either nine or ten are added together, a 64 per cent turnout, the gap widens to seven points, as does taking those who say eight, nine or ten certain (72 per cent turnout). The trust factor continues to plague the Prime Minister. Two thirds (65 per cent) disagree that the government is open and honest about the scale of immigration into Britain -- four times the percentage who believe them. Half of Labour supporters are included among the sceptics. Only a quarter of the country think that they would be financially better-off under a Conservative government (28 per cent), while over a third (36 per cent) say they would be under a Labour government, including three in ten managerial and professional (AB) families.

Only a third of the country have bought Labour's claim that the Conservative Party's agenda includes cutting public spending by as much as 16335 billion.

It's clear that there's going to be blood on the carpet on the day following the general election one way or another. If the turnout stays low, Labour could lose as many as 30 Labour MPs could be for the chop, yet the Tories would not come close to achieving their minimum target of 200 seats, up from their 166 at the last election.

Technical Details

MORI interviewed a national sample of 1,973 British adults aged 18+ in-home face-to-face between 7-11 April 2005. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. MORI abides by the rules of the British Polling Council. Copyright MORI/Evening Standard