Statistical analysis of constituency results in the last two general elections strongly suggests that ethnic minority (Black or Asian) candidates secure a smaller share of the vote for their parties than do white candidates. While it is not possible to prove from the evidence why this is the case, the obvious presumption must be that it is caused by racist voters being deterred from voting for an ethnic minority candidate. The effect was strongest in the case of Labour candidates, depressing their vote share by more than three-and-a-half percentage points, but was also present for Liberal Democrats; however, there was no statistically significant loss of votes found in the case of Conservative ethnic minority candidates.
The Queen Mother, who died at the weekend, remained popular with the British public to the end of her life. However she was not - despite the wishful thinking of certain newspapers over the last few days - the only popular member of the Royal Family.
MORI's latest poll on the War on Terrorism, published this week in Time Magazine, shows a very sharp fall in public approval for the government's handling of the crisis since MORI's last poll on the subject on 22-27 November last year. Just over half the public, 52%, say they approve of the way Mr Blair has handled the British response to the terrorist attacks, whereas in November he had the support of more than seven in ten, 71%.
The Police have been much in the news this week, with the rank-and-file demonstrating in London against the Home Secretary's reform plans, and more senior officers publicly debating whether the low clear-up and conviction rate for crimes is the fault of the Police or of the criminal justice system.
Earlier this week a veteran Labour MEP expressed his disillusionment with the party by defecting to the Conservatives. Yet, despite clear signs of growing dissatisfaction with the government, the public remain steadfastly reluctant to do the same.
Two recent issues of public concern over healthcare, though very different in their details, demonstrate some common threads in the way public opinion on such issues arises and the importance of good communications in averting such potential crises.
In the current edition of the Spectator, Stephen Glover attacks MORI in particular and the opinion polls in general on the basis of their performance in last year's general election. His argument depends upon a number of inaccuracies and misunderstandings.
The National Health Service has regained poll position as the issue of most concern to most people in Britain, pushing the war into second place. Service delivery (lack thereof) by the Blair government is salient. Recently the media are talking about the Tories' resurgence. The runes I read do not look happy for the occupants of Nos. 10 & 11.
Our poll figures are usually reported giving percentages of the whole British adult population who hold a particular opinion, but it is sometimes instructive to break them down geographically and consider to what extent national opinion is simply an aggregation of different regional opinions.
