In the current edition of the Spectator, Stephen Glover attacks MORI in particular and the opinion polls in general on the basis of their performance in last year's general election. His argument depends upon a number of inaccuracies and misunderstandings.
The National Health Service has regained poll position as the issue of most concern to most people in Britain, pushing the war into second place. Service delivery (lack thereof) by the Blair government is salient. Recently the media are talking about the Tories' resurgence. The runes I read do not look happy for the occupants of Nos. 10 & 11.
Our poll figures are usually reported giving percentages of the whole British adult population who hold a particular opinion, but it is sometimes instructive to break them down geographically and consider to what extent national opinion is simply an aggregation of different regional opinions.
MORI's 2001 survey of "Captains of Industry" [Business Leaders' Support Grows For Single European Currency], published this week, finds these representatives of Britain's biggest companies divided by more than three to two in favour of Britain joining the euro. This, of course, contrasts with the opposition to joining of the majority of the public. The Captains have always been more euro-friendly than the public, but in the last two years before the 2001 study the gap had been narrowing; the most recent figures show a sharp business swing in favour of the single currency, though as the table shows the balance of opinions has effectively simply reverted to that from 1999.
The attention span of both the British public and the news media that serve them is a short one. When there are no new developments in a story it quickly slips from the front pages, whatever its real importance, and for the public out of sight is often out of mind.
Labour's 'Wobbly Thursday' was the whole month of September 2000, when first the kerfuffle over the dome and then the petrol strike led to the Tories overtaking Labour in the opinion polls for a brief period, then reverting to its comfortable 20 point lead.
The September 11 attacks in the USA were followed by a dramatic slump in economic confidence in Britain. MORI's Economic Optimism Index (EOI) at the end of September hit -56, its lowest point since the early 1980s, exacerbating an already precarious situation. (The August figure, -31, was already the lowest since November 1998).
The Prime Minister is riding high, leading European reaction and standing tall 'shoulder to shoulder' with President Bush, over the 'War against Terrorism'. So far so good, but what happens when it's over, even if bin Laden and the Taliban are defeated and Tommy comes marching home? What then? The National Health Service has already (end November, in MORI's survey for the Times [Political Attitudes in Great Britain for November 2001]) regained poll position as the issue of most concern to most people in Britain, pushing the war into second place.
