A brief word on the importance of the low turnout and its effect on the polls. MORI's final poll projection for The Times was Conservative 30%, Labour 45%, Liberal Democrat 18%; the "poll of polls" (average of all the companies' polls conducted during the final week) was Conservative 31%, Labour 45% and Liberal Democrats 18%. Both close to the final result (32.7%:42.0%:18.8%), and within the standard 3% margin of error for all parties - though, naturally, we would like it to be even closer.
I apologise for neglecting my duties yesterday, between the BBC and ITN, with an interview with Fox News sandwiched in, I failed to file Worcester -3, so that Worcester -2 will double up on postal voting, my intended subject for -3, and tactical voting, planned for today.
A brief observation from the data in our latest poll, published in the Sunday Telegraph at the weekend and based on telephone interviews conducted on 31 May-2 June (Thursday-Saturday).
If the Conservatives do lose Thursday's election as comprehensively as the polls are continuing to indicate, the obvious question of William Hague's future as leader will not be able to be long postponed.
Never did I ever think I'd write the most trite poll story headline, but I'm tempted tonight, writing on the eve on the publication of three opinion polls in the Sunday newspapers: MORI in the Sunday Telegraph with 1,010 interviews nationwide conducted over the last couple of days, NOP in the Sunday Times with 1,000+ interviews, and ICM in the Observer also with just over 1,000, all done over the telephone.
Wow! Mild earthquake in the election polls. ICM has now brought this election to life in a poll for Channel 4, which I missed last night on the TV, being out to dinner with my family.
Labour's nightmare may be coming to haunt them the night of the 7th of June. In our survey for the Times a week ago (22nd May), there was just a few points difference between the Conservatives' 'certainty of voting', at 65%, and Labour's at 61%. That four-point gap is widening in our latest survey at the same time that the Labour share is reducing.
Three of the "Big 4" pollsters have now pronounced for this week, and they have converged. All are near to the 50% Labour, 30% Conservative, 14% Liberal Democrat share of the vote that has been the result of nearly every poll conducted since 1st November last year. For the past six months, the state of the parties has been described as 'flat lining'. So it is today.
