General Election 2001 : After Hague

If the Conservatives do lose Thursday's election as comprehensively as the polls are continuing to indicate, the obvious question of William Hague's future as leader will not be able to be long postponed.

Mr Hague's ratings are not good. According to our poll for the Sunday Telegraph, only 16% think that of the three party leaders he would make the best Prime Minister; indeed fewer than three in five of those who will vote for his party think so. In our "like him/like his policies" test, he achieved much the best personal score of his leadership, having won over some of the don't knows, but still only 35% say they like him; by contrast, 51% said they liked John Major before the last election.

Q Which of these statements come closest to your views of Mr Major/Hague?

Source: MORI/Sunday Telegraph

But if not William Hague, then who?

The MORI and NOP polls published at the weekend found slightly different responses from the public as to whether William Hague should stand down after defeat or not (NOP in the Sunday Times reported 46% saying that he should but 42% that he should stay on as leader, MORI for the Sunday Telegraph found 51% saying step down, 34% stay on), but both had significant support for Mr Hague. Furthermore, we found that more than half of current Tory supporters, 52%, thought he should not step down. If Mr Hague is forced out and a leadership battle follows, it is quite possible that Tory grass-roots support will be eroded further still.

MORI's poll also included a series of "trial heat" questions, asking how the public would vote if one of three other possible candidates were Tory leader; Ann Widdecombe fared best, but the gap was only narrowed slightly.

Source: MORI/Sunday Telegraph. Base: 1,010 adults 18+ interviewed on 31 May-2 June 2001

Furthermore, each of these alternative leaders while attracting some supporters from outside the party's currently diminished ranks would lose some of the support that the Tories already have: if Mr Portillo were leader, 6% of present Tories say they would switch their vote to other parties, 6% would not vote, and 2% were undecided or refused to say. Mr Clarke would lose an alarming 11% to other parties (almost half of whom would switch to minor parties -- presumably UKIP), 6% would not vote and 4% were undecided. Under Miss Widdecombe's leadership, 7% would switch, 4% would not vote and 4% would be undecided or refused to say.

It looks as if the Tories have no easy answers. Friday morning may be not only the end of one horrible experience but the beginning of another.