"Tories face poll meltdown" is the headline in the Guardian today, although you would not know it from the Today Programme on BBC Radio 4. Despite the headline over the splash in the newspaper, it didn't make the opening news wrap at 6 am, What the Papers Say at 6:15 am, or mention at all in the first half hour of the programme.
The public is considerable less interested in the parties' election manifestos at this election than in 1997, figures from a previously unpublished MORI survey conducted just over a week ago, reveal.
The strange, slow tempo of this election campaign, unusually punctuated by two Bank Holiday weekends, seems to fit this election, which has failed to capture the public imagination or interest, rather well. The projected turnout is stubbornly refusing to shift upwards.
Once again most of the proprietors of the Sunday newspapers have kept their money in their pockets and left the field to NOP in the Sunday Times, who have Labour on 49%, the Tories on 30%, Lib Dems on 14% and others at 7%. Our model projects this to a 235 seat Labour majority, the BBC's natty model (worth a look) has it at 227. On ours, this result would cost the Tories 19 seats off their 1997 165, add another 28 to Labour's 419, and drop the Liberal Democrats by 8, from 46 at the last election.
The changes in the image of the parties since last Autumn, as revealed in our poll published in The Times this morning, illustrate clearly why Labour seems to be winning this election so easily.
Older voters play a crucial role in the result of any British General Election. Not only are there a good many of them, but they are more likely to vote than younger voters — becoming of increasing significance as turnouts fall. Furthermore, of course, their election agenda is in many respects distinctive, forcing those who hope for their votes to give them separate consideration.
A four week campaign, half gone, and the Tories are becalmed with their core vote of around 30% +/- 3%, just where they've been ever since William Hague instead of Ken Clarke was chosen as Leader of the Conservative Party. At times like these, one speculates "what if … ".
Older voters play a crucial role in the result of any British General Election. Not only are there a good many of them, but they are more likely to vote than younger voters — becoming of increasing significance as turnouts fall. Furthermore, of course, their election agenda is in many respects distinctive, forcing those who hope for their votes to give them separate consideration.
