Tory 'Meltdown'?

Three weeks today the country will go to the polling booths and elect the next government. Never before has the outcome seemed so certain. So far nine polls with fieldwork taken after the announcement of the date of the general election have been published. All nine have projected seat calculations showing an increase in the Labour majority in the House of Commons over all other parties.

At the last general election Labour had a majority of 179 seats The lowest projection to date has been ICM's 197 and Rasmussen Research's 193, while MORI's findings so far would project to nearly 300, leaving the Tories with only about 100 seats.

I don't expect this to happen. Polls are snapshots at a point in time is one clichй I used frequently. One Harold Wilson coined, and many have used subsequently is that 'a week is a long time in politics'. True. Today I think I'll put another bet down. Ladbrooke's is offering 14 to 1 on bets in ten seat bands from 180 to 220 Labour overall majority, so that a forty seat spread at say 16310 gives you a fair shot at an increased Labour majority from where they are now (179) to an almost inconceivable 220, at odds of 11 to 1. If it falls within that 40-seat band, you'd lose three of your four tenners, but you'd still have a pretty good shot at very good odds. I'm going to, but if it doesn't come off, don't come round expecting me to feel sorry for you!

The reason I'm thinking of punting is the figures I've now seen from the latest MORI poll for the Times, which although not covered in much depth in Peter Riddell's write-up of the MORI findings in this morning's Times, due to lack of space.

It's this: on nearly every measure of strength of support, from 'first question' Labour share (56%/27%) to 'strongly support' (76% of the 54% Labour intenders -- 41% of the electorate) say they 'strongly support' the Labour Party v. 69% of the 28% of Tory intenders -- 19% of the electorate) to those who have 'definitely decided' to vote for their party, 72% of the Labour intenders compared with 67% of Tories.

Further, when asked of those who say they aren't definite in their choice of for whom to vote, 25% of Labour intenders and 31% of Tories, some 35% of the 31% of Tory waverers say they might switch to Labour, while 31% to the Lib Dems; by contrast, among the 25% who might switch from Labour, only a quarter, 24%, say they would choose the Tories, while 38% say they might switch to the Liberal Democrats. Some of these I'd think, but without polling evidence, to vote tactically.

Further evidence is contained in the 'most capable PM' question, which found over half, 52%, of the electorate saying that they thought Tony Blair would make the most capable Prime Minister, compared with 12% for William Hague and 9% for Charles Kennedy. Most startling is that among intending Tory voters, fewer than half, 46%, think that Hague is most capable, and 16% of them say Tony Blair is.

More evidence still is that on other 'image' attributes, Labour's lead over the Tories is remarkably strong, especially when compared to where John Major's party scored in 1997.

• On 'best team of leaders', 47% chose Labour to the Tories' 5% (among the 28% who say they intend to vote Tory, 15% are intending to do so despite thinking that Labour has 'the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems';
• On 'best policies', 42% chose Labour to the Tories' 17% (among the 28% who say they intend to vote Tory, 8% are intending to do so despite thinking that Labour has 'the best policies for the country as a whole;
• On 'clear and united', 40% chose Labour to the Tories' 9% (among the 28% who say they intend to vote Tory, 12% are intending to do so despite thinking that Labour has 'the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems'.

Pretty strong stuff. Four years ago I said I thought that Labour would have an overall majority in 2001 of between 100 and 120 seats. After seeing the results of last week's poll for the Times I edged it up to 130 to 140. Today I'm planning on betting on an increased majority of 180+. Three weeks is a long time in politics, and a lot may happen between now and Election Day and I may revise my bet downward.

Stuart Wheeler and his sidekick Patrick Jay gave me lunch after the last election and said 'You won't be able to take as much money off us next time; next time the punters will believe the polls'. I'm beginning to think that there might indeed be a Conservative meltdown. They began on tax, which had no measurable impact; they produced the awful 'Willie Horton' advert, and lost share the next day in our poll in the Times. I've always said that they won't win on the issue of Europe, because it is low salience, and those who do think it important are not 'floaters'. They won't change their leader. It's hard to see what they can do.

21 days and counting.