Voting Trends: January - August 2009
Sir Robert Worcester, Founder of MORI, analyses voting trends for the year to date: 1 September Update
British politics has spent a summer becalmed. In rainy July the eight published polls from five different polling organisations, fieldwork starting the 10th and ending the 30th July, averaged Conservatives 40.3%, Labour 25.1%, Liberal Democrats 19.3% and others combined, 15.4%. In August there were six published polls with the average (unweighted for sample size) from four of the pollsters, sample aggregated of over 8,000, with all six within one percentage point of 42% (up nearly 2 points) for the Tories, two percentage points for Labour's 26%, one percentage point for the Liberal Democrats at 18% (down a point) and three percentage points, plus or minus, of 14% (also down a point). None of the changes are strictly statistically significant. Since the beginning of the year, over the past eight months, 75 polls have been published, with nearly 110,000 people interviewed. The Tories have averaged 40.9% with 83% "stability factor" (within the +/-3% boundary), Labour at 26.6% with 61%, the Liberal Democrats the most stable with 88% of the 75 polls recording 18% +/-3% (no change), with the others the least stable with only 47% (within the margin of error) at 14.5%. What does this say to us about the state of British politics? First, since the beginning of the year, the monthly averages have shown that 42%/43% for the Tories in the spring has been sustained. Of the last eight polls, all in August, with the Tories averaging 42.0%, ICM's had a 41% and a 43%, ComRes a 41%, YouGov two 42%s, and Ipsos at 43%. With Labour averaging16025.8%, ICM had a 26% and a 25%, ComRes 24%, YouGov the outlier 28% and a 26% and Ipsos also coming in over the same fieldwork period also at 26%.
Eagle-eyed Mike Smithson was more awake than I was when he spotted an error in the copy which appeared in the Observer Sunday under Gaby Hinsliff's by-line. There were two figures reversed which made a nonsense of the conclusion, and rather spoiled the story. The key finding in the Observer's coverage of the Ipsos poll was that as economic optimism has been rising, support for the Labour Party has gone down over the past seven months. This blows a big hole in Labour's argument that `it'll be all right on the night' for Labour at the election next May if the economy turns around by the end of the year. Wrong. See my other blog, put up on the Ipsos website yesterday, 1 September. So what was the error, and how did it occur? My mea culpa on the politicalbetting.com website last night:
You are quite right, the numbers were reversed, simple as that. An error, for which I take responsibility, as Gaby took down what I said on the mobile in a taxi on the way to the airport coming away from the EPOP conference as you were on your way up to Glasgow to appear on a platform with Iain Dale and Anthony Wells. I may have told her the wrong figures, she may have taken them down wrong, but whatever, she emailed me the file Saturday afternoon to check the copy, and I missed it. Rereading it I just don't know how I missed it. Sorry Gaby, sorry Ipsos, and sorry, your army of devoted followers.
Sir Robert Worcester is the Founder of MORI
