Worcester's Weblog
MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.
Yesterday I developed my 'Political Triangle' which relates the four dimensions of electoral contests: values, issues, leader image and party image, looking at the 'party image' dimension which accounts for about 20 per cent or so of the aggregate determinants of how floating voters make up their collective minds.
That showed a pretty bleak picture for the Conservative Party, seen by the electorate as a whole as 'out of touch', 'divided', being willing to 'promise anything to win votes' and above all, 'extreme'.
Labour is seen as having 'a good team of leaders', but is seen as 'too dominated by its leader', Tony Blair.
The Liberal Democrats are, as always, 'moderate' and 'having sensible policies', and have captured a former Labour attribute: being 'concerned about people in real need'.
The battleground of the election isn't, but should be, the attributes in between, not captured by anyone: 'looking after the interests of people like me', 'understanding Britain's problems', and being a 'professional party'.
Nearly a third of the collective determinants are accounted for by the 'leader image', illustrated by the 'perceptual map'.
Honest Charles Kennedy is seen as a 'pretty straight kind of guy', and also 'down to earth' by comparison with the other party leaders, but has 'inexperienced' all to himself. A pretty weak hand.
Michael Howard isn't blessed with much of a hand either, for while he's seen as 'patriotic', his principal attributes are thought to be that he is 'narrow minded', inherited by Tory leaders going back to Mrs Thatcher, and is thought to 'talk down to people' and is, together with Tony Blair, thought to be 'out of touch with ordinary people'.
Blair might not be trusted by more than about a third of the public, but this election is not a referendum on Tony Blair, but a choice between two men -- let's face it -- on May 5 as to who will be the prime minister of the country.
People tell us they want a 'capable leader', and Blair captures that attribute, as he does 'understands world problems', 'has a lot of personality' and especially being 'good in a crisis'.
Here the battleground, not captured by any of the three leaders, is having 'sound judgement' and a key factor, 'understanding Britain's problems'.
Were I spinning for Labour -- and I'm not -- I'd be asking Gordon Brown (trusted by 50 per cent compared to Blair's 32 per cent and Howard's 28 per cent) to tell the media and the public how his newest bestest pal Tony Blair is a 'capable leader', who 'understands Britain's problems'.
