Worcester's Weblog
MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.
I am indebted to the Leonard Cheshire charity for access to data that they have commissioned, before the election was called, which was carried on two face-to-face omnibus surveys, in February and March.
As they were looking for a sub-sample of disabled people, it gave us some 3,819 respondents to examine in order to obtain a reasonable sample (772) of people who are disabled; to compare and contrast their political attitudes with the typical British adult population.
The first thing that this allowed us to do was to compare the voting intentions of such a large sample both with people who are not disabled and those who are, and then filter each by their being 'absolutely certain to vote'. Out of the total sample, we have 2,149 who are certain to vote, of whom 466 are disabled.
Of the total sample, 54 per cent of men and 55 per cent of women said they were certain to vote, more evidence that the gender pudding was rather over-egged.
Once again, however, the age gap proved huge. While only 34 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds said they'd vote, 54 per cent of 35 to 54s absolutely are determined, as are 72 per cent of those 55 and over, a bit higher than last time.
Six in 10 ABC1s, but just 48 per cent of C2DEs are certain to vote; and while 72 per cent of Tories said they were, only 58 per cent of Labour supporters were certain.
Across the two surveys, one done by CAPI between February 17 and 21, the other March 3 to 9, we found a five point Labour lead -- 39 per cent Labour, 34 per cent Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats at 20 per cent -- roughly where they are today, following a few weeks of roller coaster ride.
The disabled had a higher propensity to vote, with 61 per cent saying they were absolutely certain to vote, compared with 54 per cent of all electors. While their share of vote of 34 per cent for the Conservatives matched the share of 'all certain to vote', with 42 per cent intending to vote Labour, this was three points higher that the 'all' group's voting intention.
There was a warning in the views of disabled respondents, as over half said they would consider switching their vote if the policies of their preferred party were disability unfriendly, especially with regard to easier access for disabled people to trains, boats and planes.
Full topline results are available from MORI -- and full sets of tabulations by area, demographics, etc, are available from MORI for a donation to the Leonard Cheshire Fund. Their election manifesto can be downloaded from their website.
