Worcester's Weblog
MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.
Two new polls, MORI's, for the Evening Standard among 1,973 British adults, interviewed face to face in their homes, carried out by CAPI during 7-11 April, showing 39% for Labour, 35% for the Tories, and 21% for the Liberal Democrats; and ICM's 39% also for Labour, 33% for the Conservatives and 19% for Labour. Their poll was done by telephone using CATI, among 11,524 people between 10-12 April.
But today, let's look at the issues, helped by the graphic below.
Most Important Election Issues
Q Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Base: 957 British adults 18+, 7-11 April 2005 Source: MORI/Evening Standard
| Health care |  67% |
| Education | 61% |
| Law and order | 56% |
| Pensions | 49% |
| Taxation | 42% |
| Asylum | 37% |
| Managing the economy | 35% |
| Protecting the natural environment | 28% |
| Housing | 27% |
| Public transport | 26% |
| Unemployment | 25% |
| Defence | 19% |
| Europe | 19% |
| Iraq | 18% |
| Animal welfare | 14% |
| Constitution / Devolution | 8% |
| Don't know | 4% |
| Other | 2% |
It is indeed beginning to look as if Iraq, much discussed and dissected by the pundits, politicians and other talking heads so far in this campaign, is the dog that growled, not barked, in the night. It seems not to be an 'issue, issue', but is an 'image issue'.
It is an issue, because it underpins the lack of trust that the public have in Tony Blair. He took Britain into war along side the Americans on a false premise, and although President Bush has sacked the head of the CIA, the President remains in the oval office without a majority satisfaction rating now, it is true, but relatively unscathed. Blair has been wounded, but not killed, and the combination of a bias in the boundaries favouring the Labour Party by some 50 or so seats (if the Labour and Conservative Party are equal on the day, Labour would have an overall majority of c. 50 seats.
When you ask using a showcard of a sample of nearly 2,000 people interviewed face-to-face in their homes, as MORI did for the Evening Standard between 7-11 April, published today, not what are the issues facing the country, but what might move votes from one party to another either by potential voters being attracted to one party or repelled by another, Iraq struggles to be in 14th place or so out of 16 issues tested.
There are four reasons that issues don't bite, although there are indications that this time issues will be deemed important to more people than other recent elections. First, they have to be salient; second, there has to be a perceived difference between the parties stand on the issue thought important, third, a belief that the party if in power would, and fourthly could, do something about the issue of concern.
So what does bite? The old traditionals: health, education, crime come top, as usual. Tomorrow, the rest of the story: which party has the lead on which issues, and by how much, and how has this changed since the 2001 General Election.
On the weekend, my column will be replaced by my colleague and co-author Dr. Paul Baines of Middlesex, who is spending a four-month sabbatical with us.
